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Start
15.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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15.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central
0
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central April 15, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rosario Central.
Line favourite market consensus: Rosario Central. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.89 / X 2.95 / 2 2.12
- 1X2 market: Libertad Asuncion 24.2% / X 31.7% / Rosario Central 44.2%
- Glicko: Libertad Asuncion - / X 100.0% / Rosario Central -
- Total 2.5: over probability 45.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.8%
1
24.1%
X
31.7%
2
44.2%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5
35.2%
Under 2.5
64.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
8/9
Confidence
65.6%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion: Win 3.50 Libertad Asuncion: Draw 3.00 Rosario Central Win: 2.30 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Libertad Asuncion bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Libertad Asuncion menshe 0.5: …
Form
5/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:1
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
35
min
Event
Player
Team
7'
7' Yellow Card | Álvaro Campuzano
Libertad Asuncion
11'
11' Yellow Card | Estiven Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
33'
33' Yellow Card | Agustín Sández
Rosario Central
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Robert Rojas | assist/sub out: Iván Franco
J. Castrop
Libertad Asuncion
58'
58' Substitution 2 | Lucas Sanabria | assist/sub out: Amin Molinas
Libertad Asuncion
58'
58' Substitution 1 | Julián Fernández | assist/sub out: Enzo Copetti
Rosario Central
70'
70' Substitution 2 | Agustín Sández | assist/sub out: Alexis Soto
Rosario Central
70'
70' Substitution 3 | Alejo Véliz | assist/sub out: Pol Fernandez
Rosario Central
Metric
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.33
1.07
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
2
final
Shots off target
4
5
final
Shots on target
2
7
final
Udary vsego
8
14
final
Fouls soversheno
16
9
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
3
final
Offsides
1
1
final
Libertad Asuncion
#3 A. Sandez, #5 F. Ibarra, #8 J. Campaz, #9 A. Veliz, #13 G. Avila, #16 E. Gimenez, #18 J. Fernandez, #20 Vicente Pizarro, #23 C. Ledesma, #32 E. Coronel, #46 I. Ovando
Rosario Central
#3 R. Rojas, #5 D. Viera, #6 A. Campuzano, #8 F. Carrizo, #14 A. Fretes, #17 M. D. Espinoza Acosta, #21 L. Sanabria, #34 E. Villalba
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Thiago Fernandez
Dribling popytki
3
Thiago Fernandez
Edinoborstva vsego
1
Thiago Fernandez
Edinoborstva vyigrano
7
Thiago Fernandez
Seyvy
0
Thiago Fernandez
football.player.minutes_played
97
Thiago Fernandez
Klyuchevye pasy
22
Thiago Fernandez
Reyting (staryy)
7
Thiago Fernandez
Bloki
1
Thiago Fernandez
Otbory vsego
17
A. Sandez
Libertad Asuncion
Dribling popytki
5
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Libertad Asuncion
27.4%
-
Draw
31.1%
100.0%
draw risk
Rosario Central
41.5%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 45.1%
-
Under 54.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,499 / 1,475
Libertad Asuncion / Rosario Central
RD
229 / 247
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.11
market consensus · line only
X
2.96
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.90
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.23
market consensus · line only
12
1.36
market consensus · line only
1X
1.69
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.30
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.10
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.08
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.36
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.67
market consensus · weak value +20.4% · model 45.1%
Under 2.5
1.45
market consensus · no value · model 54.9%
Both teams to score
No
1.64
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.15
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 4.00 25.0% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.05 48.8% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.85 26.0% | 3.15 31.8% | 4.17 24.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.15 24.1% | 3.50 28.6% | |
| X | 2.88 34.7% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.95 33.9% | 2.90 34.5% |
| 2.16 46.3% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.20 45.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.65 60.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.61 62.1% |
| yes | 2.10 47.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.15 46.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_away | 1.35 74.1% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.65 60.6% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% |
Match center
Libertad Asuncion
Founded
1905
Rosario Central
Founded
1889
Match center
Libertad Asuncion
L
D
D
D
D
Libertad Asuncion
1:3
UCV
UCV
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
River Plate
Libertad Asuncion
0:0
River Plate
Libertad Asuncion
2:2
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
Sao Paulo
0
Wins
4
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.4
Conceded
4
Points
Rosario Central
D
Rosario Central
0:0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
0.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLibertad Asuncion - Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form