Match center
Start
08.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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08.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Mirassol - Lanus
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mirassol - Lanus April 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mirassol.
Line favourite market consensus: Mirassol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.13 / X 3.08 / 2 3.69
- 1X2 market: Mirassol 44.0% / X 30.5% / Lanus 25.5%
- Glicko: Mirassol - / X 100.0% / Lanus -
- Total 2.5: over probability 65.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
44.1%
X
30.5%
2
25.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
72.3%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Mirassol - Lanus
Mirassol: Win 2.15 Mirassol: Draw 3.20 Lanus Win: 3.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Mirassol bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Mirassol menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Lanus bolshe 0…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
17
Statistics
26
Lineups
38
min
Event
Player
Team
2'
2' Yellow Card | José Aldo
Mirassol
20'
20' Yellow Card
Mirassol
48'
48' Goal Disallowed - video review | Neto
Mirassol
52'
52' Yellow Card | Matías Sepúlveda
M. Abu Abd
Lanus
60'
60' Normal Goal | João Victor | assist/sub out: Reinaldo
Mirassol
62'
62' Substitution 1 | José Aldo | assist/sub out: Gabriel Pires
Mirassol
69'
69' Substitution 2 | Franco Watson | assist/sub out: Yoshan Valois
Lanus
69'
69' Substitution 3 | Edson Carioca | assist/sub out: Alesson
Mirassol
Metric
Mirassol
Lanus
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.47
0.34
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
2
final
Shots off target
7
2
final
Shots on target
3
2
final
Udary vsego
13
6
final
Fouls soversheno
16
7
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
3
1
final
Mirassol
#6 S. Marcich, #8 F. Watson, #11 E. Salvio, #13 J. Canale, #16 M. Sepúlveda, #23 R. Carrera, #24 C. Izquierdoz, #26 N. Losada, #30 A. Cardozo, #33 T. Guidara
Lanus
#6 Reinaldo, #21 José Aldo, #22 Walter, #32 Igor Formiga, #33 Eduardo, #34 João Victor, #95 Edson Carioca, #99 André Luís
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Neto Moura
Dribling popytki
3
Neto Moura
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
Neto Moura
Seyvy
0
Neto Moura
football.player.minutes_played
77
Neto Moura
Tochnost pasov %
1
Neto Moura
Klyuchevye pasy
26
Neto Moura
Reyting (staryy)
6.9
Neto Moura
Shots on target
1
Neto Moura
Bloki
1
Neto Moura
Otbory vsego
23
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Mirassol
44.1%
-
market favourite
Draw
30.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Lanus
25.6%
-
Total 2.5
Over 65.0%
-
Under 35.0%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.70
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.70
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.70
market consensus · line only
X
3.09
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.13
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.68
market consensus · line only
12
1.33
market consensus · line only
1X
1.25
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.72
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.71
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.30
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.48
market consensus · weak value +61.1% · model 65.0%
Under 2.5
1.52
market consensus · no value · model 35.0%
Both teams to score
No
1.66
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.09
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 2.10 47.6% | |
| X | 3.20 31.3% |
| 3.75 26.7% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.18 45.9% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.14 46.7% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.10 47.6% | |
| X | 3.05 32.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 3.50 28.6% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.95 25.3% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.95 25.3% | 3.75 26.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.70 58.8% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.63 61.4% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.00 50.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.65 60.6% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.30 76.9% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
Match center
Mirassol
Founded
1925
Lanus
Founded
1915
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMirassol - Lanus
Mirassol
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form