Match center
Start
07.05.2026 22:00 UTC
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07.05.2026 22:00 UTC
Group G. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Mirassol - LDU de Quito
2
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mirassol - LDU de Quito May 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mirassol.
Line favourite market consensus: Mirassol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.50 / X 4.03 / 2 6.67
- 1X2 market: Mirassol 62.6% / X 23.3% / LDU de Quito 14.1%
- Glicko: Mirassol - / X 100.0% / LDU de Quito -
- Total 2.5: over probability 82.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
62.6%
X
23.3%
2
14.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.8%
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/5
Confidence
69.9%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Mirassol - LDU de Quito
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Mirasol - LDU Kito, 8 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group G. 4 round. Mirasol - LDU Kito, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
3/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
15
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
44'
44' Yellow Card | G. F. Allala Menendez
G. Allala
LDU de Quito
47'
47' Normal Goal
Mirassol
55'
55' Yellow Card | Y. Quinonez
Y. Quinonez
LDU de Quito
61'
61' Penalty | Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Mirassol
71'
71' Substitution 1 | J. Quintero | assist/sub out: R. Ade
JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez
LDU de Quito
71'
71' Substitution 2 | G. Villamil | assist/sub out: C. Luna Tobar
G. Villamíl
LDU de Quito
71'
71' Substitution 3 | Deyverson | assist/sub out: M. Estrada
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
74'
74' Substitution 1 | Everton Galdino | assist/sub out: André Luis
Everton Galdino
Mirassol
Metric
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.16
0.28
final
Zablokirovannye udary
0
0
final
Shots off target
7
4
final
Shots on target
8
2
final
Udary vsego
15
6
final
Fouls soversheno
6
12
final
Zheltye kartochki
0
3
final
Offsides
1
1
final
Mirassol
#6 Reinaldo, #8 Denilson, #17 Everton Galdino, #22 Walter, #95 Edson Carioca, #3 Willian Machado, #7 Shaylon, #25 Neto Moura, #2 Lucas Oliveira, #96 Carlos Eduardo, #32 Igor Formiga
LDU de Quito
#1 Gonzalo Valle, #15 G. VillamGl, #16 Deyverson, #23 Y. Quinonez, #8 J. Pretell, #9 J. Medina, #33 Leonel Enrique QuiG±Gіnez Padilla, #20 F. Cornejo, #44 Luis Segovia, #30 G. Allala, #14 JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
C. Luna Tobar
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
24
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
71
F. Cornejo
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
85
G. Allala
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
95
G. Villamíl
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
71
Gonzalo Valle
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
95
J. Medina
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
85
J. Pretell
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
95
JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
71
K. Minda
LDU de Quito
football.player.minutes_played
10
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Mirassol
61.1%
-
market favourite
Draw
23.8%
100.0%
draw risk
LDU de Quito
15.0%
-
Total 2.5
Over 82.6%
-
Under 17.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.76
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.76
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.08
market consensus · line only
X
6.00
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.14
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2
2.51
market consensus · line only
12
1.21
market consensus · line only
1X
1.10
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.53
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.92
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.40
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.95
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.03
market consensus · weak value +67.7% · model 82.6%
Under 2.5
1.77
market consensus · no value · model 17.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.66
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.11
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.51 66.2% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.47 68.0% | |
| X | 3.85 26.0% | 4.16 24.0% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.00 25.0% |
| 6.60 15.2% | 6.89 14.5% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.25 16.0% | 7.00 14.3% | 6.50 15.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.70 58.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.64 61.0% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.10 47.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.45 40.8% | 2.56 39.1% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.52 39.7% | 2.60 38.5% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 75.2% | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.49 67.1% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.81 55.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.20 31.3% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — |
Match center
Mirassol
Founded
1925
LDU de Quito
Founded
1930
Match center
Mirassol
W
L
W
Mirassol
2:0
Always Ready
Always Ready
Mirassol
0:2
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
1:0
Lanus
Lanus
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.7
Conceded
6
Points
LDU de Quito
L
W
W
L
W
LDU de Quito
0:1
Lanus
Lanus
LDU de Quito
2:0
Mirassol
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
1:0
Always Ready
Always Ready
LDU de Quito
0:4
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
3:0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMirassol - LDU de Quito
Mirassol
1
matches total
Mirassol: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
LDU de Quito: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
LDU de Quito 0:2 (15.04 02:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (0:2, 15.04 02:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Mirassol
0:2
LDU de Quito
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Mirassol
Team 2
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
Team comparison
LDU de Quito
3
Games
3
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
3
Scored
3
2
Conceded
1
6
Points
6
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
3.33
Shots on target
2.67
Mirasol LDU Kito 3 Games 3 2 Wins 2 0 Draws 0 1 Losses 1 3 Scored 3 2 Conceded 1 6 Points 6 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 3.33 Udary v stvor 2.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.67 Uglovye 4.67 0.67 Offsaydy 1 11.33 Foly 12.33 52 % vladeniya myachom 39.67 3 Warnings 2.67 0.67 Sendoffs 0 Goly Lucas da Cruz Oliveira 1:0 47' Reynaldo 2:0 61' Nakazaniya Gian Allala 44' Yerlin Quinonez 55' Luis Geovanny Segovia 75'
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