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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

Group F. 5 round 21.05.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction

21.05.2026 00:30 UTC Group F. 5 round

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras - Cerro Porteno

World Football

Palmeiras

0 : 1

Finished

Cerro Porteno

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Palmeiras - Cerro Porteno May 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.

Line favourite market consensus: Palmeiras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.01 / 2 10.68
1X2 market: Palmeiras 72.2% / X 18.8% / Cerro Porteno 9.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%

1 72.4%

X 18.8%

2 8.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%

Over 2.5 47.0%

Under 2.5 53.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Palmeiras

Main outcome Palmeiras

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 40.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 21.05.2026 00:30 UTC

Match center

Palmeiras - Cerro Porteno

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Palmeyras - Serro Porteno, 21 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group F. 5 round. Palmeyras - Serro Porteno, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 15

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | R. Piris R. Piris Cerro Porteno

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Fredy Noguera | assist/sub out: Jonatan Torres Fredy Noguera Cerro Porteno

46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Chaparro | assist/sub out: Guillermo Benitez M. Chaparro Cerro Porteno

48' 48' Normal Goal | P. Vegetti | assist/sub out: F. Dominguez P. Vegetti Cerro Porteno

59' 59' Substitution 1 | A. Giay | assist/sub out: Mauricio A. Giay Palmeiras

60' 60' Yellow Card | J. Morel J. Morel Cerro Porteno

61' 61' Yellow Card | Guillermo Benitez A. G. Benitez Cerro Porteno

62' 62' Substitution 3 | Mateo Klimowicz | assist/sub out: Cesar Bobadilla M. Klimowicz Cerro Porteno

Metric Palmeiras Cerro Porteno SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.79 0.76 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 4 final

Shots off target 4 1 final

Shots on target 5 2 final

Udary vsego 11 7 final

Fouls soversheno 17 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final

Offsides 3 0 final

Palmeiras #1 Carlos Miguel, #11 J. Arias, #17 Marlon Freitas, #42 J. López, #56 Arthur Gabriel, #8 Andreas Pereira, #26 Murilo, #32 E. Martínez, #15 G. Gómez, #40 Allan, #4 A. Giay

Cerro Porteno #1 A. Martin, #19 P. Vegetti, #26 R. Piris, #35 M. Chaparro, #36 Fredy Noguera, #22 M. Perez, #40 M. Klimowicz, #5 J. Morel, #23 G. Velázquez, #2 F. Dominguez, #10 C. Dominguez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. G. Benitez Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 0

A. G. Benitez Cerro Porteno football.player.minutes_played 45

A. Martin Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 0

A. Martin Cerro Porteno football.player.minutes_played 90

C. Bobadilla Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 0

C. Bobadilla Cerro Porteno football.player.minutes_played 28

C. Dominguez Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 0

C. Dominguez Cerro Porteno football.player.minutes_played 73

F. Dominguez Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 1

F. Dominguez Cerro Porteno football.player.minutes_played 90

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.20 Fonbet · line only

X 4.40 Fonbet · line only

1 1.30 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.18 Fonbet · line only

1X 3.95 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.03 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 5.80 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 9.00 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.43 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.33 75.2%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.34 74.6%	1.25 80.0%
X	5.10 19.6%	5.19 19.3%	4.80 20.8%	5.25 19.1%	5.20 19.2%	5.00 20.0%
	8.40 11.9%	11.80 8.5%	11.00 9.1%	9.50 10.5%	12.00 8.3%	11.00 9.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Superbet
no	1.45 69.0%	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.41 70.9%
yes	2.55 39.2%	2.64 37.9%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.67 37.5%	2.60 38.5%	2.63 38.0%	2.61 38.3%	2.75 36.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	3.40 29.4%	3.52 28.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.25 30.8%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.04 96.2%	1.02 98.0%	1.05 95.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.07 93.5%	1.04 96.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.38 72.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.50 66.7%
Over 2.25	—	1.83 54.6%
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%	—
Over 3.5	3.55 28.2%	—
Over 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—
Under 1.5	3.20 31.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.77 56.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Palmeiras

W D W D L

05.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 2:0 Sporting Cristal

30.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 1:1 Cerro Porteno

16.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 2:1 Sporting Cristal

09.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 1:1 Junior

29.11 21:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 0:1 Flamengo

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Cerro Porteno

W D W L D

08.05 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno 1:0 Junior

30.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno 1:1 Palmeiras

14.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno 1:0 Junior

09.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno 0:1 Sporting Cristal

20.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno 0:0 Estudiantes L.P.

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.4 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPalmeiras - Cerro Porteno

Palmeiras

3 matches total

Cerro Porteno

Palmeiras: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:1 (33.3%)

Cerro Porteno: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Palmeiras 2:0 (08.05 00:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 30.04 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (30.04 00:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

30.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras

1:1

Cerro Porteno

08.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras

2:0

Cerro Porteno

10.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras

1:0

Cerro Porteno

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Palmeiras

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Cerro Porteno

4 Games 4

2 Wins 2

2 Draws 1

0 Losses 1

6 Scored 3

3 Conceded 2

8 Points 7

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

22 Shots on goal 0

5.5 Shots on target 2.25

niya 0.25 Goly Pablo Vekhetti Fabricio Dominguez 0:1 48' Nakazaniya Robert Piris 45+3' Jorge Morel 60' Guillermo Benitez 61' Arthur Gabriel 68' Andreas Pereyra 84' Gustavo Gomes 89'

Palmeyras Serro Porteno 4 Games 4 2 Wins 2 Draws 1 0 Losses 1 6 Scored 3 Conceded 2 8 Points 7 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 22 Shots on goal 0 5.5 Udary v stvor 2.25 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 7.75 Uglovye 2.5 2.75 Offsaydy 1 8.75 Foly 11.75 61.5 % vladeniya myachom 37.75 1 Warnings 1.75 0 Sendoffs 0.25 Goly Pablo Vekhetti Fabricio Dominguez 0:1 48' Nakazaniya Robert Piris 45+3' Jorge Morel 60' Guillermo Benitez 61' Arthur Gabriel 68' Andreas Pereyra 84' Gustavo Gomes 89'