Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

CONMEBOL Libertadores World

16.04.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction

16.04.2026 22:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal

World Football

Stadium Alyants Park

Palmeiras

2 : 1

Finished

Sporting Cristal

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Palmeiras — 73%

1 · Palmeiras ✓ Pick73.1%

market80%

X · draw16.8%

market13%

2 · Sporting Cristal10.2%

market6%

Model estimate: win Palmeiras 73.1%, draw 16.8%, win Sporting Cristal 10.2%. Model favourite — Palmeiras.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.

Strongest: Palmeiras - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.17 / X 6.98 / 2 15.34
1X2 market: Palmeiras 80.2% / X 13.5% / Sporting Cristal 6.3%
Glicko: Palmeiras 73.1% / X 16.8% / Sporting Cristal 10.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 60.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 ✓ Pick 80.4%

X 13.5%

2 6.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%

Over 2.5 58.9%

Under 2.5 41.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 76.8%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 16.04.2026 22:00 UTC

Stadium Alyants Park (San-Paulu)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ????? ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Palmeiras 73%

💹 Market Palmeiras 8023%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal

Palmeiras: Win 1.20 Palmeiras: Draw 7.00 Sporting Cristal Win: 13.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Palmeiras bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Palmeiras menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golo…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 0

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

Metric Palmeiras Sporting Cristal SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.16 0.72 final

Zablokirovannye udary 8 3 final

Shots off target 9 3 final

Shots on target 6 2 final

Udary vsego 23 8 final

Fouls soversheno 4 9 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 3 final

Offsides 3 2 final

Palmeiras #1 Carlos Miguel, #4 A. Giay, #8 Andreas Pereira, #11 J. Arias, #12 Khellven, #15 G. Gómez, #17 Marlon Freitas, #19 R. Sosa, #40 Allan, #42 J. López

Sporting Cristal #1 D. Enríquez, #5 R. Lutiger, #8 L. Sosa, #11 I. Ávila, #16 L. Iberico, #18 J. González, #19 Y. Yotún, #20 M. Araujo, #23 M. Castro, #55 Gustavo Cazonatti, #90 Cris Silva

Player Team Metric SStats

Maurício Seyvy 0

A. Pósito Sporting Cristal Seyvy 0

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal football.player.assists 0

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Dribling popytki 1

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Edinoborstva vsego 1

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Seyvy 0

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal football.player.minutes_played 12

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Klyuchevye pasy 6

C. Benavente Sporting Cristal Reyting (staryy) 6.3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Palmeiras 79.9% 73.1% market and model agree

Draw 14.0% 16.8% draw risk

Sporting Cristal 6.1% 10.2%

xG - 2.34 : 0.75

Total 2.5 Over 60.3% - Under 39.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 73.1% / 16.8% / 10.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,774 / 1,564 Palmeiras / Sporting Cristal

RD 215 / 163 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 7.01 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%

Double chance

X2 4.80 market consensus · no value · model 26.9%

12 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 83.3%

1X 1.03 market consensus · no value · model 89.9%

Handicap

2 -0.5 4.50 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.85 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 60.3%

Under 2.5 2.29 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%

Both teams to score

No 1.50 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.18 84.8%
X	7.50 13.3%
	13.00 7.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.18 84.8%	1.16 86.2%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.18 84.8%	1.20 83.3%
X	6.50 15.4%	6.30 15.9%	7.70 13.0%	6.50 15.4%	7.50 13.3%	7.20 13.9%
	14.00 7.1%	12.00 8.3%	17.00 5.9%	15.00 6.7%	13.00 7.7%	18.50 5.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.48 67.6%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.47 68.0%	1.40 71.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.48 67.6%
yes	2.45 40.8%	2.35 42.6%	2.43 41.2%	2.38 42.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.75 36.4%	2.45 40.8%	2.43 41.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	4.50 22.2%	5.15 19.4%	4.60 21.7%	4.33 23.1%	4.90 20.4%	5.50 18.2%
home_away	1.10 90.9%	1.09 91.7%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.08 92.6%
home_draw	1.02 98.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.03 97.1%

Match center

Palmeiras

Founded 1914

Sporting Cristal

Founded 1955

Match center

Palmeiras

D L W L W

09.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 1:1 Junior

29.11 21:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 0:1 Flamengo

31.10 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 4:0 LDU de Quito

24.10 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 0:3 LDU de Quito

25.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras 3:1 River Plate

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Sporting Cristal

W L W D D

09.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal 1:0 Cerro Porteno

11.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal 1:2 Carabobo FC

04.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal 1:0 Carabobo FC

25.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal 0:0 2 de Mayo

18.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal 2:2 2 de Mayo

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPalmeiras - Sporting Cristal

Palmeiras

2 matches total

Sporting Cristal

Palmeiras: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sporting Cristal: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Palmeiras 6:0 (29.05 00:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (6:0, 29.05 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

9 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 9

Match history

29.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras

6:0

Sporting Cristal

03.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras

3:2

Sporting Cristal

Match center

? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.