Match center
Start
17.04.2026 00:30 UTC
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17.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Penarol - Platense
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Penarol - Platense April 17, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Penarol.
Line favourite market consensus: Penarol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / X 2.94 / 2 4.47
- 1X2 market: Penarol 47.2% / X 31.8% / Platense 21.0%
- Glicko: Penarol - / X 100.0% / Platense -
- Total 2.5: over probability 59.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.9%
1
47.2%
X
31.8%
2
20.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
31.1%
Under 2.5
68.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
72.5%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Penarol - Platense
Penarol: Win 1.95 Penarol: Draw 3.00 Platense Win: 4.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Penarol bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Penarol menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Platense bolshe…
Form
5/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
22
Statistics
26
Lineups
40
min
Event
Player
Team
22'
22' Normal Goal | Guido Mainero
T. Štrasberger
Platense
26'
26' Yellow Card | Franco Escobar
Penarol
33'
33' Yellow Card | Tomas Nasif
Platense
45+3'
45+3' Yellow Card | Franco Zapiola
Platense
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Jesús Trindade | assist/sub out: Leandro Umpierrez
Penarol
55'
55' Yellow Card | Lucas Ferreira
Penarol
58'
58' Normal Goal
Penarol
60'
60' Yellow Card | Maximiliano Olivera
Penarol
Metric
Penarol
Platense
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.11
1.08
final
Zablokirovannye udary
0
0
final
Shots off target
4
2
final
Shots on target
5
3
final
Udary vsego
9
5
final
Fouls soversheno
16
24
final
Red cards
1
0
final
Zheltye kartochki
5
5
final
Penarol
#3 T. Silva, #6 E. Raggio, #7 G. Mainero, #9 T. Nasif, #10 F. Zapiola, #20 M. Borgogno, #26 P. Ferreira, #31 Victor Cuesta, #34 M. Mendia, #43 K. Retamar
Platense
#1 Sebastián Britos, #3 M. Lemos, #5 E. Remedi, #8 N. Fernandez, #19 M. Arezo, #21 Jesús Trindade, #77 L. Angulo
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
German Barbas
Seyvy
0
A. Lagos
Penarol
football.player.assists
0
A. Lagos
Penarol
Dribling uspeshno
1
A. Lagos
Penarol
Edinoborstva vsego
1
A. Lagos
Penarol
Edinoborstva vyigrano
5
A. Lagos
Penarol
Seyvy
0
A. Lagos
Penarol
football.player.minutes_played
15
A. Lagos
Penarol
Klyuchevye pasy
4
A. Lagos
Penarol
Reyting (staryy)
6.3
A. Lagos
Penarol
Otbory vsego
2
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Penarol
48.2%
-
market favourite
Draw
30.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Platense
21.0%
-
Total 2.5
Over 59.6%
-
Under 40.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.47
market consensus · line only
X
2.95
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.99
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.80
market consensus · line only
12
1.36
market consensus · line only
1X
1.18
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.85
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.35
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.41
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.20
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
3.04
market consensus · weak value +81.3% · model 59.6%
Under 2.5
1.37
market consensus · no value · model 40.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.50
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.45
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 2.00 50.0% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% |
| 4.50 22.2% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 50.3% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | |
| X | 2.90 34.5% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.01 33.2% | 2.80 35.7% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 4.45 22.5% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.73 21.1% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.90 20.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.50 66.7% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.48 67.6% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.50 66.7% |
| yes | 2.40 41.7% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.46 40.7% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.46 40.7% | 2.38 42.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.77 56.5% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% |
| home_away | 1.33 75.2% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.17 85.5% |
Match center
Penarol
Founded
1891
Platense
Founded
1905
Match center
Penarol
D
L
W
D
W
Penarol
1:1
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
Penarol
1:3
Racing Club
Penarol
1:0
Racing Club
Penarol
0:0
Velez Sarsfield
Penarol
3:2
Olimpia
Olimpia
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.2
Conceded
8
Points
Platense
L
Platense
0:2
Corinthians
Corinthians
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyPenarol - Platense
Penarol
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form