Match center
Start
09.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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09.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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CONMEBOL Libertadores
Rosario Central - Independiente del Valle
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Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Rosario Central - Independiente del Valle April 9, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rosario Central.
Line favourite market consensus: Rosario Central. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 3.45 / 2 6.09
- 1X2 market: Rosario Central 57.2% / X 27.2% / Independiente del Valle 15.6%
- Glicko: Rosario Central - / X 100.0% / Independiente del Valle -
- Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
57.3%
X
27.2%
2
15.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
71.4%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Rosario Central - Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central: Win 1.62 Rosario Central: Draw 3.50 Independiente del Valle Win: 6.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Rosario Central bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Rosario Central menshe 1.5: …
Form
0/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:0
Events
13
Statistics
26
Lineups
37
min
Event
Player
Team
30'
30' Yellow Card
Independiente del Valle
58'
58' Substitution 1 | Matías Perello | assist/sub out: Arón Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
58'
58' Substitution 2 | Emerson Pata | assist/sub out: M. Lawrence
Independiente del Valle
58'
58' Substitution 3 | J. Lerma | assist/sub out: Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
60'
60' Red Card
Independiente del Valle
63'
63' Substitution 1 | Emanuel Coronel | assist/sub out: Enzo Copetti
I. Barry
Rosario Central
73'
73' Substitution 4 | Daykol Romero | assist/sub out: Andy Velasco
Independiente del Valle
75'
75' Yellow Card | Franco Ibarra
Rosario Central
Metric
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.36
1.4
final
Zablokirovannye udary
6
2
final
Shots off target
11
6
final
Shots on target
9
2
final
Udary vsego
26
10
final
Fouls soversheno
5
7
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
Rosario Central
#3 A. Sandez, #5 F. Ibarra, #8 J. Campaz, #9 A. Veliz, #11 A. Di Maria, #13 G. Avila, #16 E. Gimenez, #20 Vicente Pizarro, #23 C. Ledesma, #32 E. Coronel, #46 I. Ovando
Independiente del Valle
#1 A. Quintana, #6 J. Alcívar, #10 J. Sornoza, #11 M. Perelló, #13 Daykol Romero, #14 M. Carabajal, #19 L. Loor, #23 J. Viacava, #31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Darwin Guagua
football.player.assists
0
Darwin Guagua
Dribling popytki
2
Darwin Guagua
Dribling uspeshno
2
Darwin Guagua
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
Darwin Guagua
Fouls na igroke
1
Darwin Guagua
Seyvy
0
Darwin Guagua
football.player.minutes_played
33
Darwin Guagua
Klyuchevye pasy
1
Darwin Guagua
Reyting (staryy)
6.7
Darwin Guagua
Bloki
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Rosario Central
57.0%
-
market favourite
Draw
27.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Independiente del Valle
15.2%
-
Total 2.5
Over 56.6%
-
Under 43.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.72
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.72
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,481 / 1,499
Rosario Central / Independiente del Valle
RD
293 / 269
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.10
market consensus · line only
X
3.45
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.64
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.21
market consensus · line only
12
1.26
market consensus · line only
1X
1.11
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.25
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.67
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
5.47
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.90
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.44
market consensus · value +38.1% · model 56.6%
Under 2.5
1.53
market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.55
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.31
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.62 61.7% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% |
| 6.25 16.0% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 62.1% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.62 61.7% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.55 28.2% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 6.60 15.2% | 4.50 22.2% | 6.38 15.7% | 6.25 16.0% | 7.20 13.9% | 6.00 16.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.55 64.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.54 64.9% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.58 63.3% |
| yes | 2.30 43.5% | 2.42 41.3% | 2.33 42.9% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.33 42.9% | 2.08 48.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 1.10 90.9% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.13 88.5% |
Match center
Rosario Central
Founded
1889
Independiente del Valle
Founded
1958
Match center
Independiente del Valle
W
L
D
D
W
Independiente del Valle
2:1
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
2:6
River Plate
Independiente del Valle
1:1
Universitario
Universitario
Independiente del Valle
2:2
River Plate
Independiente del Valle
1:0
Universitario
Universitario
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.6
Scored
2.0
Conceded
8
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyRosario Central - Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form