Match center
Start
05.05.2026 22:00 UTC
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05.05.2026 22:00 UTC
Group H. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion May 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rosario Central.
Line favourite market consensus: Rosario Central. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.10 / 2 9.89
- 1X2 market: Rosario Central 72.0% / X 18.4% / Libertad Asuncion 9.6%
- Glicko: Rosario Central - / X 100.0% / Libertad Asuncion -
- Total 2.5: over probability 57.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
1
72.1%
X
18.4%
2
9.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Glavnyy konsensus AI: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/6
Confidence
66.4%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Rosario Sentral - Libertad, 6 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group H. 4 round. Rosario Sentral - Libertad, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
3/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
18
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
18'
18' Yellow Card | G. Aguilar
G. Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
33'
33' Yellow Card | A. Sandez
A. Sandez
Rosario Central
35'
35' Yellow Card | R. Rojas
R. Rojas
Libertad Asuncion
43'
43' Missed Penalty | A. Di Maria | assist/sub out: A. Di Maria
A. Di Maria
Rosario Central
46'
46' Substitution 1 | I. Franco | assist/sub out: R. Villalba
I. Franco
Libertad Asuncion
46'
46' Substitution 1 | J. Campaz | assist/sub out: E. Copetti
J. Campaz
Rosario Central
57'
57' Normal Goal | I. Ovando
I. Ovando
Rosario Central
64'
64' Yellow Card | G. Avila
G. Avila
Rosario Central
Metric
Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.52
0.66
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
4
final
Shots off target
6
5
final
Shots on target
7
3
final
Udary vsego
17
12
final
Fouls soversheno
13
18
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
4
final
Offsides
3
0
final
Rosario Central
#3 A. Sandez, #8 J. Campaz, #9 A. Veliz, #20 Vicente Pizarro, #23 C. Ledesma, #11 A. Di Maria, #13 G. Avila, #28 P. Fernandez, #16 E. Gimenez, #46 I. Ovando, #32 E. Coronel
Libertad Asuncion
#8 F. Carrizo, #10 L. Melgarejo, #12 R. M. Morinigo Acosta, #14 A. Fretes, #5 D. Viera, #6 A. Campuzano, #11 G. Aguilar, #3 R. Rojas, #21 L. Sanabria, #2 I. Ramirez, #18 I. Franco
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Campuzano
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
94
A. Fretes
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
94
A. Molinas
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
14
D. Viera
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
94
E. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
4
F. Carrizo
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
80
G. Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
80
I. Franco
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
45
I. Ramirez
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
90
J. Recalde
Libertad Asuncion
football.player.minutes_played
14
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Rosario Central
74.0%
-
market favourite
Draw
18.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Libertad Asuncion
7.7%
-
Total 2.5
Over 57.1%
-
Under 42.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.82
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.82
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,635 / 1,400
Rosario Central / Libertad Asuncion
RD
193 / 185
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
8.82
market consensus · line only
X
4.98
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.33
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
3.37
market consensus · line only
12
1.15
market consensus · line only
1X
1.04
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
3.23
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.56
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
7.00
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.35
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.78
market consensus · no value · model 57.1%
Under 2.5
2.01
market consensus · no value · model 42.9%
Both teams to score
No
1.59
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.21
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.70 58.8% | |
| X | 3.40 29.4% |
| 5.30 18.9% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.31 76.3% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.25 80.0% | |
| X | 4.90 20.4% | 5.28 18.9% | 4.80 20.8% | 5.25 19.1% | 5.40 18.5% | 5.00 20.0% |
| 9.75 10.3% | 10.90 9.2% | 9.50 10.5% | 8.50 11.8% | 10.00 10.0% | 10.50 9.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.52 65.8% |
| yes | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.33 42.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 3.35 29.9% | 3.48 28.7% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.60 27.8% |
| home_away | 1.15 87.0% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.14 87.7% |
| home_draw | 1.04 96.2% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.05 95.2% |
Match center
Rosario Central
Founded
1889
Libertad Asuncion
Founded
1905
Match center
Rosario Central
W
W
D
Rosario Central
3:0
UCV
UCV
Rosario Central
1:0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
0:0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
2
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.3
Scored
0.0
Conceded
7
Points
Libertad Asuncion
L
L
L
D
D
Libertad Asuncion
2:3
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
0:1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
1:3
UCV
UCV
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
River Plate
Libertad Asuncion
0:0
River Plate
0
Wins
2
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.6
Conceded
2
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyRosario Central - Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
1
matches total
Rosario Central: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Libertad Asuncion: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Rosario Central 1:0 (15.04 22:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (1:0, 15.04 22:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Rosario Central
1:0
Libertad Asuncion
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Rosario Central
Team 2
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
Team comparison
Libertad Asuncion
3
Games
3
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
0
0
Losses
3
4
Scored
3
0
Conceded
7
7
Points
0
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
7
Shots on target
3.67
Rosario Sentral Libertad 3 Games 3 2 Wins 0 1 Draws 0 Losses 3 4 Scored 3 0 Conceded 7 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 7 Udary v stvor 3.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.67 Uglovye 2.33 2.33 Offsaydy 2.33 8 Foly 9.67 63.67 % vladeniya myachom 42 2.67 Warnings 2.33 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Ignacio Ovando 1:0 57' Nezabitye penalti Ankhel Di Mariya 43' Nakazaniya Gustavo Aguilar 18' Agustin Sandes 33' Robert Rokhas 35' Gaston Avila 64' Federico Carrizo 66' Jorge Recalde 90+1'
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