Match center
Start
07.05.2026 00:30 UTC
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07.05.2026 00:30 UTC
Group E. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Santa Fe - Corinthians
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Santa Fe - Corinthians May 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Corinthians.
Line favourite market consensus: Corinthians. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.12 / X 2.93 / 2 2.49
- 1X2 market: Santa Fe 30.2% / X 32.2% / Corinthians 37.7%
- Glicko: Santa Fe - / X 100.0% / Corinthians -
- Total 2.5: over probability 51.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
30.1%
X
32.1%
2
37.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5
35.1%
Under 2.5
64.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Glavnyy konsensus AI: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
5/5
Confidence
66.0%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Santa Fe - Corinthians
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Santa-Fe - Korintians, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group E. 4 round. Santa-Fe - Korintians, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
15
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
39'
39' Yellow Card | E. Olivera
E. Olivera
Santa Fe
44'
44' Yellow Card | Y. A. Perlaza Perea
Y. Perlaza
Santa Fe
55'
55' Substitution 1 | Y. A. Perlaza Perea | assist/sub out: J. Obrian
Y. Perlaza
Santa Fe
56'
56' Substitution 2 | E. Olivera | assist/sub out: I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
E. Olivera
Santa Fe
59'
59' Normal Goal | H. Rodallega | assist/sub out: J. Obrian
H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
64'
64' Yellow Card | H. Rodallega
H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
75'
75' Substitution 1 | Andre | assist/sub out: Dieguinho
Andre
Corinthians
79'
79' Substitution 3 | O. Fernandez | assist/sub out: A. Zapata
O. Fernández
Santa Fe
Metric
Santa Fe
Corinthians
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.26
0.69
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
4
final
Shots off target
4
5
final
Shots on target
7
3
final
Udary vsego
15
12
final
Fouls soversheno
17
4
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
0
final
Offsides
3
1
final
Santa Fe
#1 A. Mosquera, #6 K. Toscano, #8 O. Fernández, #11 H. Rodallega, #32 C. Mafla, #3 V. Moreno, #16 D. Torres, #19 N. Bustos, #18 E. Olivera, #27 Y. Perlaza, #13 H. Palacios
Corinthians
#1 Hugo Souza, #9 Yuri Alberto, #14 Raniele, #21 Matheus Bidu, #77 J. Lingard, #8 R. Garro, #13 Gustavo Henrique, #49 Andre, #3 Gabriel Paulista, #7 Breno, #2 Matheuzinho
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Zapata
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
A. Zapata
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
11
C. Mafla
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
C. Mafla
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
90
D. Torres
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
D. Torres
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
90
E. Olivera
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
E. Olivera
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
56
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Santa Fe
33.5%
-
Draw
30.9%
100.0%
draw risk
Corinthians
35.7%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 51.2%
-
Under 48.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,455 / 1,777
Santa Fe / Corinthians
RD
213 / 212
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.79
market consensus · line only
X
1.04
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.27
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.35
market consensus · line only
12
1.37
market consensus · line only
1X
1.51
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.38
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.10
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.43
market consensus · line only
2 +1
4.20
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.68
market consensus · value +37.1% · model 51.2%
Under 2.5
1.45
market consensus · no value · model 48.9%
Both teams to score
No
1.65
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.11
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.10 32.3% | 3.23 31.0% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.20 31.3% | |
| X | 2.92 34.3% | 2.96 33.8% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.05 32.8% | 2.80 35.7% |
| 2.48 40.3% | 2.53 39.5% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.57 38.9% | 2.50 40.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.65 60.6% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.73 57.8% |
| yes | 2.10 47.6% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.16 46.3% | 1.97 50.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.35 74.1% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_away | 1.35 74.1% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| home_draw | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.12 89.3% | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.14 87.7% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.55 64.5% | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.99 50.3% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 2.44 41.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.70 37.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 5.50 18.2% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.00 16.7% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.40 41.7% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.45 69.0% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.14 87.7% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — |
Match center
Santa Fe
Founded
1941
Corinthians
Founded
1910
Match center
Santa Fe
L
L
D
W
L
Santa Fe
1:2
Platense
Platense
Santa Fe
0:2
Corinthians
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1:1
Penarol
Penarol
Santa Fe
2:1
Deportes Iquique
Santa Fe
1:2
Deportes Iquique
1
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.6
Conceded
4
Points
Corinthians
W
W
W
W
L
Corinthians
2:0
Penarol
Penarol
Corinthians
2:0
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
Corinthians
2:0
Platense
Platense
Corinthians
2:0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
Corinthians
0:3
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.6
Scored
0.6
Conceded
12
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySanta Fe - Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
matches total
Santa Fe: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Corinthians: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Corinthians 0:2 (16.04 00:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (0:2, 16.04 00:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Santa Fe
0:2
Corinthians
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Santa Fe
Team 2
Corinthians
Santa Fe
Team comparison
Corinthians
3
Games
3
0
Wins
3
1
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
2
Scored
6
5
Conceded
0
1
Points
9
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
1.33
Shots on target
6
Santa-Fe Korintians 3 Games 3 0 Wins 3 1 Draws 0 2 Losses 0 2 Scored 6 5 Conceded 0 1 Points 9 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 1.33 Udary v stvor 6 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.33 Uglovye 5 0 Offsaydy 0.33 17.33 Foly 6.33 45.33 % vladeniya myachom 60.67 2.33 Warnings 0.67 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Ugo Rodalega Khader Obrian 1:0 60' Gustavo Enrike Mateuzino 1 90+3' Nakazaniya Emanuele Oliveyra 39' Yeicar Perlaza 44' Ugo Rodalega 64' Alexis Zapata 90+4'
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
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