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Start
10.04.2026 02:00 UTC
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10.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Santa Fe - Penarol
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Santa Fe - Penarol April 10, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Santa Fe.
Line favourite market consensus: Santa Fe. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 2.99 / 2 3.80
- 1X2 market: Santa Fe 44.3% / X 31.1% / Penarol 24.5%
- Glicko: Santa Fe - / X 100.0% / Penarol -
- Total 2.5: over probability 51.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.4%
1
44.3%
X
31.1%
2
24.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
72.6%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Santa Fe - Penarol
Santa Fe: Win 2.10 Santa Fe: Draw 3.10 Penarol Win: 4.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.53 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Santa Fe bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Santa Fe menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Penarol bol…
Form
2/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
16
Statistics
24
Lineups
36
min
Event
Player
Team
18'
18' Substitution 1 | Yilmar Velázquez | assist/sub out: Maximiliano Lovera
Yaoyu Yang
Santa Fe
20'
20' Normal Goal | Emanuel Olivera | assist/sub out: Omar Fernández
A. Zammit
Santa Fe
28'
28' Yellow Card | Victor Moreno
Wenze Li
Santa Fe
44'
44' Substitution 2 | Maximiliano Lovera | assist/sub out: Alexis Zapata
B. AG°alsteinsson
Santa Fe
45+5'
45+5' Yellow Card
Santa Fe
46'
46' Substitution 3 | Daniel Torres | assist/sub out: Kilian Toscano
Santa Fe
46'
46' Substitution 4 | Daniel Torres | assist/sub out: Kilian Toscano
Santa Fe
51'
51' Yellow Card | Lucas Ferreira
Penarol
Metric
Santa Fe
Penarol
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.93
1.18
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
4
final
Shots off target
11
6
final
Shots on target
2
6
final
Udary vsego
15
16
final
Fouls soversheno
17
5
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
1
final
Offsides
0
2
final
Santa Fe
#1 A. Mosquera, #3 V. Moreno, #7 J. Torres, #8 O. Fernández, #11 H. Rodallega, #13 H. Palacios, #14 L. Palacios, #16 D. Torres, #18 E. Olivera, #20 Y. Velásquez, #32 C. Mafla
Penarol
#1 Sebastián Britos, #3 M. Lemos, #5 E. Remedi, #8 N. Fernandez, #10 L. Fernandez, #19 M. Arezo, #21 Jesús Trindade, #77 L. Angulo
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
German Barbas
Seyvy
0
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
Seyvy
0
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
45
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
Klyuchevye pasy
12
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
Reyting
4
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
Reyting (staryy)
6.9
A. Mosquera
Santa Fe
Otbory vsego
7
A. Zapata
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
A. Zapata
Santa Fe
Dribling popytki
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Santa Fe
44.6%
-
market favourite
Draw
31.0%
100.0%
draw risk
Penarol
24.4%
-
Total 2.5
Over 51.7%
-
Under 48.3%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.81
market consensus · line only
X
3.00
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.10
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.69
market consensus · line only
12
1.33
market consensus · line only
1X
1.24
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.73
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.65
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.52
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.62
market consensus · value +35.6% · model 51.7%
Under 2.5
1.46
market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
Both teams to score
No
1.62
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.18
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 2.10 47.6% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% |
| 3.90 25.6% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 47.2% | 2.06 48.5% | 2.19 45.7% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.00 50.0% | |
| X | 3.05 32.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 2.98 33.6% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 2.80 35.7% |
| 3.70 27.0% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.59 27.9% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.95 25.3% | 3.90 25.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.57 63.7% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.64 61.0% |
| yes | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.10 47.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.67 59.9% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.25 80.0% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
Match center
Santa Fe
Founded
1941
Penarol
Founded
1891
Match center
Santa Fe
W
L
Santa Fe
2:1
Deportes Iquique
Santa Fe
1:2
Deportes Iquique
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.5
Scored
1.5
Conceded
3
Points
Penarol
L
W
D
W
W
Penarol
1:3
Racing Club
Penarol
1:0
Racing Club
Penarol
0:0
Velez Sarsfield
Penarol
3:2
Olimpia
Olimpia
Penarol
3:0
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySanta Fe - Penarol
Santa Fe
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Santa Fe - Penarol breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form