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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
09.04.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal - Cerro Porteno

World Football
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
1 : 0
Finished
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Cerro Porteno — 37%

1 · Sporting Cristal36.1%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Cerro Porteno36.7%

Model estimate: win Sporting Cristal 36.1%, draw 27.3%, win Cerro Porteno 36.7%. Model favourite — Cerro Porteno.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sporting Cristal - Cerro Porteno April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sporting Cristal.

Line favourite market consensus: Sporting Cristal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 3.09 / 2 3.01
  • 1X2 market: Sporting Cristal 38.6% / X 30.3% / Cerro Porteno 31.1%
  • Glicko: Sporting Cristal 36.1% / X 27.3% / Cerro Porteno 36.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 49.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.9%
1 38.7%
X 30.3%
2 31.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 41.5%
Under 2.5 58.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 28.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 02:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Cerro Porteno 37%
💹 Market Sporting Cristal 3863%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sporting Cristal - Cerro Porteno

Sporting Cristal: Win 2.45 Sporting Cristal: Draw 3.20 Cerro Porteno Win: 3.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Sporting Cristal bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Sporting Cristal menshe 1.5: 1.44 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 14
Statistics 26
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
14' 14' Substitution 1 | Alan SoG±ora | assist/sub out: Mateo Klimowicz Cerro Porteno
43' 43' Red Card Cerro Porteno
43' 43' Yellow Card Sporting Cristal
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Mateo Klimowicz | assist/sub out: Guillermo Benitez J. Mecinovikj Cerro Porteno
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Cristhian Paredes | assist/sub out: Josué Servín A. Souhmahoro Cerro Porteno
52' 52' Yellow Card | Gustavo Cazonatti Sporting Cristal
61' 61' Substitution 1 | Gustavo Cazonatti | assist/sub out: Yoshimar Yotún Sporting Cristal
72' 72' Substitution 2 | Irven Ávila | assist/sub out: Felipe Vizeu Sporting Cristal
Metric Sporting Cristal Cerro Porteno SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.89 0.09 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 9 1 final
Shots on target 4 1 final
Udary vsego 16 3 final
Fouls soversheno 9 11 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Sporting Cristal #1 A. Martin, #5 J. Morel, #7 A. Sonora, #8 C. Paredes, #10 C. Dominguez, #14 L. A. Quintana Rodriguez, #19 P. Vegetti, #23 G. Velázquez, #26 R. Piris, #27 J. Torres, #35 M. Chaparro
Cerro Porteno #1 D. Enríquez, #5 R. Lutiger, #8 L. Sosa, #11 I. Ávila, #16 L. Iberico, #18 J. González, #20 M. Araujo, #23 M. Castro, #25 G. Távara, #55 Gustavo Cazonatti, #90 Cris Silva
Player Team Metric SStats
Roberto Fernández Seyvy 0
Rodrigo Melgarejo Seyvy 0
A. Pósito Cerro Porteno Seyvy 0
C. Benavente Cerro Porteno Seyvy 0
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno football.player.assists 0
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno Dribling popytki 1
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno Dribling uspeshno 1
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno Fouls na igroke 1
C. Cabellos Cerro Porteno Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sporting Cristal 39.2% 36.1% market favourite
Draw 30.2% 27.3% draw risk
Cerro Porteno 30.6% 36.7% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.22 : 1.23
Total 2.5 Over 49.6% - Under 50.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.1% / 27.3% / 36.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,514 / 1,640 Sporting Cristal / Cerro Porteno
RD 174 / 240 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.02 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.7%
X 3.10 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.42 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.1%
Double chance
X2 1.53 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.9%
12 1.33 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.7%
1X 1.35 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.99 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.59 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.27 market consensus · weak value +12.6% · model 49.6%
Under 2.5 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 50.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.82 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.40 41.7%
X 3.20 31.3%
3.10 32.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.44 41.0% 2.36 42.4% 2.49 40.2% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.12 32.1% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.96 33.8% 2.84 35.2% 3.12 32.1% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9% 1.82 55.0%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.96 51.0% 1.89 52.9% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.38 72.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2%
Match center
Sporting Cristal
Founded 1955
Cerro Porteno
Founded 1912
Match center
Sporting Cristal
L W D D L
11.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 1:2 Carabobo FCCarabobo FC
04.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 1:0 Carabobo FCCarabobo FC
25.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 0:0 2 de Mayo2 de Mayo
18.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 2:2 2 de Mayo2 de Mayo
29.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 0:6 PalmeirasPalmeiras
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Cerro Porteno
D L L W L
20.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 0:0 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
13.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 0:1 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
29.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 0:4 BolívarBolívar
14.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 1:0 Sporting CristalSporting Cristal
08.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 0:2 PalmeirasPalmeiras
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySporting Cristal - Cerro Porteno

Sporting Cristal
2 matches total
Cerro Porteno
Sporting Cristal: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Cerro Porteno: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Cerro Porteno 0:1 (14.05 00:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 25.04 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (25.04 00:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

14.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal
0:1
Cerro Porteno
25.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal
2:2
Cerro Porteno
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.