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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
03.04.2025 22:00 UTC Match prediction
03.04.2025 22:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras

World Football
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
2 : 3
Finished
Palmeiras
Palmeiras

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras April 3, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.

Line favourite Fonbet: Palmeiras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 6.50 / X 4.30 / 2 1.50
  • 1X2 market: Sporting Cristal 14.6% / X 22.1% / Palmeiras 63.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 14.6%
X 22.1%
2 63.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 52.6%
Under 2.5 47.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.04.2025 22:00 UTC
Match center

Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.50 Fonbet · line only
X 4.30 Fonbet · line only
1 6.50 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 1.11 Fonbet · line only
12 1.22 Fonbet · line only
1X 2.60 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.12 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.52 15.3%
X 4.35 23.0%
1.51 66.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
6.60 15.2% 6.48 15.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.25 16.0% 6.10 16.4% 6.50 15.4%
X 4.20 23.8% 4.36 22.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.25 23.5% 4.20 23.8%
1.49 67.1% 1.52 65.8% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.47 68.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin Fonbet Marathonbet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 1.11 90.1% 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.55 39.2% 2.57 38.9% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.50 40.0%