Match center
Start
05.05.2026 22:00 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
05.05.2026 22:00 UTC
Group F. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras
0
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Palmeiras — 59%
Model estimate: win Sporting Cristal 17.6%, draw 23.1%, win Palmeiras 59.4%. Model favourite — Palmeiras.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras May 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.
Strongest: Palmeiras - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.35 / X 4.04 / 2 1.51
- 1X2 market: Sporting Cristal 14.8% / X 23.2% / Palmeiras 62.0%
- Glicko: Sporting Cristal 17.6% / X 23.1% / Palmeiras 59.4%
- Total 2.5: over probability 39.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
1
14.8%
X
23.2%
2 ✓ Pick
62.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Glavnyy konsensus AI: 2
Main outcome
Agreement
5/5
Confidence
64.9%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
0:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Palmeiras 59%
💹 Market
Palmeiras 6199%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Sporting Kristal - Palmeyras, 6 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group F. 4 round. Sporting Kristal - Palmeyras, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
3
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:2
Events
16
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
18'
18' Yellow Card | G. Gómez
G. Gómez
Palmeiras
30'
30' Yellow Card | I. Avila
I. Ávila
Sporting Cristal
32'
32' Normal Goal | J. López
J. López
Palmeiras
47'
47' Yellow Card | M. Tavara
G. Távara
Sporting Cristal
50'
50' Normal Goal
Palmeiras
57'
57' Substitution 1 | I. Avila | assist/sub out: F. Vizeu
I. Ávila
Sporting Cristal
58'
58' Substitution 2 | L. Iberico | assist/sub out: Gabriel
L. Iberico
Sporting Cristal
66'
66' Substitution 3 | S. Gonzalez | assist/sub out: J. Gonzalez
S. González
Sporting Cristal
Metric
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.99
1.61
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
11
final
Shots off target
8
6
final
Shots on target
6
5
final
Udary vsego
18
22
final
Fouls soversheno
16
12
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
Offsides
4
2
final
Sporting Cristal
#1 D. Enríquez, #11 I. Ávila, #19 Y. Yotún, #23 M. Castro, #90 Cris Silva, #5 R. Lutiger, #16 L. Iberico, #25 G. Távara, #7 S. González, #20 M. Araujo, #8 L. Sosa
Palmeiras
#1 Carlos Miguel, #11 J. Arias, #17 Marlon Freitas, #42 J. López, #56 Arthur Gabriel, #8 Andreas Pereira, #19 R. Sosa, #26 Murilo, #15 G. Gómez, #40 Allan, #4 A. Giay
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
13
Cris Silva
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
94
D. Enríquez
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
94
Felipe Vizeu
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
37
G. Távara
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
81
Gabriel
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
36
I. Ávila
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
57
I. Wisdom
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
13
J. González
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
28
L. Iberico
Sporting Cristal
football.player.minutes_played
58
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Sporting Cristal
15.1%
17.6%
Draw
23.4%
23.1%
draw risk
Palmeiras
61.5%
59.4%
market and model agree
xG
-
0.85 : 1.78
Total 2.5
Over 39.8%
-
Under 60.3%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
17.6% / 23.1% / 59.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,597 / 1,755
Sporting Cristal / Palmeiras
RD
145 / 178
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.52
market consensus · no value · model 59.4%
X
4.03
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
6.23
market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
Double chance
X2
1.11
market consensus · no value · model 82.4%
12
1.21
market consensus · no value · model 77.0%
1X
2.47
market consensus · no value · model 40.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.11
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.02
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.51
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.89
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.94
market consensus · no value · model 39.8%
Under 2.5
1.84
market consensus · value +10.9% · model 60.3%
Both teams to score
No
1.73
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.00
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 4.60 21.7% | |
| X | 3.85 26.0% |
| 1.68 59.5% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.20 16.1% | 6.48 15.4% | 6.00 16.7% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.40 15.6% | 6.50 15.4% | |
| X | 3.95 25.3% | 4.16 24.0% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.25 23.5% | 4.00 25.0% |
| 1.53 65.4% | 1.54 64.9% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.50 66.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.73 57.8% | 1.71 58.5% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.81 55.3% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.02 49.5% | 1.87 53.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.10 90.9% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 2.45 40.8% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.63 38.0% |
Match center
Sporting Cristal
Founded
1955
Palmeiras
Founded
1914
Match center
Sporting Cristal
W
L
W
L
W
Sporting Cristal
2:0
Junior
Junior
Sporting Cristal
1:2
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
1:0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Sporting Cristal
1:2
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
Sporting Cristal
1:0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.2
Scored
0.8
Conceded
9
Points
Palmeiras
D
W
D
L
W
Palmeiras
1:1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Palmeiras
2:1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
1:1
Junior
Junior
Palmeiras
0:1
Flamengo
Flamengo
Palmeiras
4:0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.6
Scored
0.8
Conceded
8
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySporting Cristal - Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
3
matches total
Sporting Cristal: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Palmeiras: 3 (100%)
Biggest win
Palmeiras 0:6 (29.05 00:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
6 goals (0:6, 29.05 00:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Sporting Cristal
1:2
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
0:6
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
2:3
Palmeiras
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Sporting Cristal
Team 2
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
Team comparison
Palmeiras
7
Games
3
4
Wins
1
1
Draws
2
2
Losses
0
8
Scored
4
6
Conceded
3
13
Points
5
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
1.67
Shots on target
5.67
Sporting Kristal Palmeyras 7 Games 3 4 Wins 1 Draws 2 Losses 0 8 Scored 4 6 Conceded 3 13 Points 5 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 1.67 Udary v stvor 5.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.33 Uglovye 8 1.33 Offsaydy 3 5 Foly 7.67 53 % vladeniya myachom 62.67 1.14 Warnings 0.67 0.14 Sendoffs 0 Goly Khose Lopes Dzhon Aryas 0:1 32' Ramon Sosa 0:2 50' Nakazaniya Gustavo Gomes 18' Irven Avila 30' Martin Tavara 47' Agustin Khyay 76'
Unlock the full match prediction
The Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form