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Start
08.04.2026 00:30 UTC
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08.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
U. Catolica - Boca Juniors
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction U. Catolica - Boca Juniors April 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.
Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.54 / X 3.04 / 2 2.20
- 1X2 market: U. Catolica 26.6% / X 30.9% / Boca Juniors 42.6%
- Glicko: U. Catolica - / X 100.0% / Boca Juniors -
- Total 2.5: over probability 47.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
1
26.5%
X
30.9%
2
42.6%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5
36.9%
Under 2.5
63.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
72.5%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
U. Catolica - Boca Juniors
U. Catolica: Win 3.70 U. Catolica: Draw 3.10 Boca Juniors Win: 2.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov U. Catolica bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov U. Catolica menshe 0.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total g…
Form
0/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
18
Statistics
24
Lineups
43
min
Event
Player
Team
10'
10' Yellow Card | Leandro Paredes
Boca Juniors
10'
10' Yellow Card
U. Catolica
16'
16' Normal Goal | Leandro Paredes
Boca Juniors
32'
32' Yellow Card | Jhojan Valencia
Liam Broady
U. Catolica
39'
39' Yellow Card | Lautaro Blanco
Boca Juniors
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Gary Medel | assist/sub out: Fernando Zuqui
U. Nunez
U. Catolica
52'
52' Yellow Card | Fernando Zuqui
A. Attard
U. Catolica
56'
56' Substitution 2 | Clemente Montes | assist/sub out: Matías Palavecino
U. Catolica
Metric
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.74
0.68
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
0
final
Shots off target
5
3
final
Shots on target
3
4
final
Udary vsego
10
7
final
Fouls soversheno
13
12
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
2
final
Offsides
0
2
final
U. Catolica
#2 L. Di Lollo, #3 L. Blanco, #5 L. Paredes, #12 L. Brey, #16 M. Merentiel, #18 M. Delgado, #23 M. Weigandt, #25 S. Ascacíbar, #28 A. Bareiro, #32 A. Costa, #36 T. Aranda
Boca Juniors
#1 V. Bernedo, #2 D. Gonzalez, #3 E. Mena, #7 J. Giani, #9 F. Zampedri, #11 C. Montes, #15 C. Cuevas, #17 G. Medel, #19 B. Ampuero, #20 J. Valencia, #26 J. Diaz
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Daniel González
Dribling popytki
7
Daniel González
Dribling uspeshno
2
Daniel González
Edinoborstva vyigrano
11
Daniel González
Fouls soversheno
2
Daniel González
Fouls na igroke
1
Daniel González
Seyvy
0
Daniel González
football.player.minutes_played
93
Daniel González
Tochnost pasov %
1
Daniel González
Klyuchevye pasy
28
Daniel González
Reyting (staryy)
6.9
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
U. Catolica
26.6%
-
Draw
30.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Boca Juniors
42.7%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 47.7%
-
Under 52.3%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.21
market consensus · line only
X
3.04
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.55
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.27
market consensus · line only
12
1.35
market consensus · line only
1X
1.66
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.30
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.07
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.16
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.49
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.56
market consensus · weak value +22.2% · model 47.7%
Under 2.5
1.50
market consensus · no value · model 52.3%
Both teams to score
No
1.66
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.11
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 3.70 27.0% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.25 44.4% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.70 27.0% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.72 26.9% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% | |
| X | 3.05 32.8% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.12 32.1% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.12 47.2% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Superbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.62 61.7% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.64 61.0% |
| yes | 2.15 46.5% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.27 78.7% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% |
| home_draw | 1.67 59.9% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.63 61.4% |
Match center
U. Catolica
Founded
1937
Boca Juniors
Founded
1905
Match center
Boca Juniors
W
L
Boca Juniors
2:1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Boca Juniors
0:1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyU. Catolica - Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The U. Catolica - Boca Juniors breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form