Match center
Start
07.05.2026 02:00 UTC
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07.05.2026 02:00 UTC
Group D. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
U. Catolica - Cruzeiro
0
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction U. Catolica - Cruzeiro May 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cruzeiro.
Line favourite market consensus: Cruzeiro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.04 / X 3.08 / 2 2.42
- 1X2 market: U. Catolica 30.8% / X 30.4% / Cruzeiro 38.7%
- Glicko: U. Catolica - / X 100.0% / Cruzeiro -
- Total 2.5: over probability 79.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
1
30.8%
X
30.4%
2
38.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/5
Confidence
61.5%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
U. Catolica - Cruzeiro
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Universidad Katolika - Kruzeyro, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group D. 4 round. Universidad Katolika - Kruzeyro, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
3/3
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:0
Events
11
Statistics
24
Lineups
45
min
Event
Player
Team
13'
13' Yellow Card | J. Giani
J. Giani
U. Catolica
21'
21' Yellow Card | Artur Jorge
Cruzeiro
29'
29' Yellow Card | Kaiki
Kaiki
Cruzeiro
37'
37' Yellow Card | L. Romero
Lucas Romero
Cruzeiro
48'
48' Red Card | K. Arroyo
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
63'
63' Substitution 1 | E. Mena | assist/sub out: J. A. Martinez
E. Mena
U. Catolica
63'
63' Substitution 2 | F. Zuqui | assist/sub out: G. Medel
F. Zuqui
U. Catolica
63'
63' Substitution 3 | C. Montes | assist/sub out: M. Palavecino
C. Montes
U. Catolica
Metric
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.98
0.54
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
4
final
Shots off target
5
6
final
Shots on target
5
1
final
Udary vsego
13
11
final
Fouls soversheno
16
7
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
U. Catolica
#1 V. Bernedo, #3 E. Mena, #7 J. Giani, #9 F. Zampedri, #20 J. Valencia, #15 C. Cuevas, #26 J. Diaz, #8 F. Zuqui, #19 B. Ampuero, #6 S. Arancibia, #11 C. Montes
Cruzeiro
#6 Kaiki, #19 Kaio Jorge, #29 Lucas Romero, #81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa, #88 Christian, #10 Matheus Pereira, #11 Gerson, #34 Jonathan Jesus, #15 Fabrício Bruno, #99 K. Arroyo, #23 Fagner
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Christian
Cruzeiro
football.player.assists
0
Christian
Cruzeiro
football.player.minutes_played
78
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
football.player.assists
0
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
football.player.minutes_played
90
Fagner
Cruzeiro
football.player.assists
0
Fagner
Cruzeiro
football.player.minutes_played
90
Gerson
Cruzeiro
football.player.assists
0
Gerson
Cruzeiro
football.player.minutes_played
90
João Marcelo
Cruzeiro
football.player.assists
0
João Marcelo
Cruzeiro
football.player.minutes_played
12
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
U. Catolica
31.0%
-
Draw
29.6%
100.0%
draw risk
Cruzeiro
39.4%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 79.2%
-
Under 20.8%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.70
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.70
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.93
market consensus · line only
X
1.05
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.75
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.35
market consensus · line only
12
1.33
market consensus · line only
1X
1.55
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.38
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.11
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.37
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.76
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.12
market consensus · weak value +67.9% · model 79.2%
Under 2.5
1.71
market consensus · no value · model 20.8%
Both teams to score
No
1.92
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.79
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 33.3% | 3.18 31.5% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.10 32.3% | |
| X | 3.15 31.8% | 3.18 31.5% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.38 42.0% | 2.42 41.3% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.37 42.2% | 2.40 41.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.93 51.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.97 50.8% | 1.91 52.4% |
| yes | 1.77 56.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.80 55.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.55 64.5% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.38 72.5% | 1.31 76.3% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.41 70.9% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.54 64.9% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.88 53.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.75 26.7% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.73 57.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — |
Match center
U. Catolica
Founded
1937
Cruzeiro
Founded
1921
Match center
U. Catolica
W
W
L
U. Catolica
2:1
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
U. Catolica
2:1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1:2
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.7
Scored
1.3
Conceded
6
Points
Cruzeiro
W
L
W
Cruzeiro
1:0
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1:2
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
1:0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.7
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyU. Catolica - Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
matches total
U. Catolica: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Cruzeiro: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
U. Catolica 2:1 (15.04 22:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (2:1, 15.04 22:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
U. Catolica
2:1
Cruzeiro
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
U. Catolica
Team 2
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
Team comparison
Cruzeiro
3
Games
3
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
5
Scored
3
4
Conceded
2
6
Points
6
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
3.67
Shots on target
2.33
Universidad Katolika Kruzeyro 3 Games 3 2 Wins 2 0 Draws 0 1 Losses 1 5 Scored 3 4 Conceded 2 6 Points 6 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 3.67 Udary v stvor 2.33 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.33 Uglovye 2.33 1 Offsaydy 0.67 12.33 Foly 8.67 40.33 % vladeniya myachom 56.67 3 Warnings 3.67 0 Sendoffs 0 Nakazaniya Khusto Dzhani 13' Kayki 29' Lukas Daniel Romero 37' Keni Arroyo 48' Matias Palavecino 66'
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