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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

06.05.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

06.05.2026 00:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV - Independiente del Valle

World Football

UCV

2 : 0

Finished

Independiente del Valle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction UCV - Independiente del Valle May 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente del Valle.

Line favourite market consensus: Independiente del Valle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.06 / X 3.79 / 2 1.65
1X2 market: UCV 18.5% / X 24.8% / Independiente del Valle 56.7%
Glicko: UCV - / X 100.0% / Independiente del Valle -
Total 2.5: over probability 58.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.8%

1 18.5%

X 24.7%

2 56.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%

Over 2.5 49.3%

Under 2.5 50.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/6

Confidence 69.1%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 06.05.2026 00:00 UTC

Match center

UCV - Independiente del Valle

UCV: Win 4.50 UCV: Draw 3.75 Independiente del Valle Win: 1.73 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov UCV bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov UCV menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Independiente de…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 14

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

46' 46' Substitution 1 | A. Granko | assist/sub out: V. Rodriguez A. Granko UCV

50' 50' Yellow Card | J. Bolívar J. Bolívar UCV

54' 54' Normal Goal | J. Zapata J. Zapata UCV

65' 65' Substitution 1 | M. Perello | assist/sub out: E. Pata M. Perelló Independiente del Valle

67' 67' Normal Goal UCV

70' 70' Substitution 2 | R. Briones | assist/sub out: J. Lerma Ronald Briones Independiente del Valle

73' 73' Yellow Card | L. Loor L. Loor Independiente del Valle

80' 80' Substitution 4 | A. Rodriguez | assist/sub out: D. Reasco A. Rodríguez Independiente del Valle

Metric UCV Independiente del Valle SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.54 2.38 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 5 final

Shots off target 4 16 final

Shots on target 4 7 final

Udary vsego 8 28 final

Fouls soversheno 3 7 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 2 1 final

UCV #6 F. Solé, #7 J. Cuesta, #11 J. Bolívar, #13 G. Schiavone, #27 D. Carrillo, #19 A. Simarra, #30 A. González, #47 A. Granko, #4 W. Velásquez, #8 J. Zapata, #2 K. Silva

Independiente del Valle #1 A. Quintana, #6 J. Alcívar, #9 Carlos González, #17 A. Rodríguez, #19 L. Loor, #10 J. Sornoza, #23 J. Viacava, #14 M. Carabajal, #16 Ronald Briones, #11 M. Perelló, #13 Daykol Romero

Player Team Metric SStats

A. González UCV football.player.assists 1

A. González UCV football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Granko UCV football.player.assists 0

A. Granko UCV football.player.minutes_played 45

A. Simarra UCV football.player.assists 0

A. Simarra UCV football.player.minutes_played 90

D. Carrillo UCV football.player.assists 0

D. Carrillo UCV football.player.minutes_played 87

F. Solé UCV football.player.assists 0

F. Solé UCV football.player.minutes_played 90

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

UCV 20.6% -

Draw 25.5% 100.0% draw risk

Independiente del Valle 53.9% - market favourite

Total 2.5 Over 58.3% - Under 41.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.75

Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.75

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

Rating 1,404 / 1,631 UCV / Independiente del Valle

RD 207 / 190 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.75 market consensus · line only

X 10.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.05 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

X2 1.15 market consensus · line only

12 1.24 market consensus · line only

1X 2.18 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.16 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · value +12.0% · model 58.3%

Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	4.35 23.0%
X	3.65 27.4%
	1.77 56.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	5.10 19.6%	5.15 19.4%	5.00 20.0%	5.25 19.1%	5.40 18.5%	5.00 20.0%
X	3.70 27.0%	3.91 25.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%	3.80 26.3%
	1.65 60.6%	1.69 59.2%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.84 54.4%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.84 54.4%	1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.15 87.0%	1.17 85.5%	1.15 87.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.14 87.7%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.22 45.1%	2.25 44.4%

Match center

UCV

Founded 1950

Independiente del Valle

Founded 1958

Match center

UCV

L L W L D

29.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 0:3 Rosario Central

16.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 1:3 Independiente del Valle

09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 3:1 Libertad Asuncion

27.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 2:3 Corinthians

20.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 1:1 Corinthians

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.2 Conceded

4 Points

Independiente del Valle

W W D W L

28.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 3:2 Libertad Asuncion

16.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 3:1 UCV

09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 0:0 Rosario Central

28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 2:1 Barcelona SC

16.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 2:6 River Plate

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyUCV - Independiente del Valle

UCV

1 matches total

Independiente del Valle

UCV: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Independiente del Valle: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Independiente del Valle 1:3 (16.04 02:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 16.04 02:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

16.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV

1:3

Independiente del Valle

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.