Match center
Start
09.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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09.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
UCV - Libertad Asuncion
3
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction UCV - Libertad Asuncion April 9, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Libertad Asuncion.
Line favourite market consensus: Libertad Asuncion. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.03 / X 2.99 / 2 2.48
- 1X2 market: UCV 30.9% / X 31.4% / Libertad Asuncion 37.7%
- Glicko: UCV - / X 100.0% / Libertad Asuncion -
- Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.8%
1
30.9%
X
31.3%
2
37.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
62.1%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
UCV - Libertad Asuncion
UCV: Win 3.00 UCV: Draw 3.20 Libertad Asuncion Win: 2.45 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.35 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov UCV bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov UCV menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Libertad Asuncion bol…
Form
2/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
3:1
Events
20
Statistics
24
Lineups
36
min
Event
Player
Team
5'
5' Yellow Card
UCV
13'
13' Yellow Card | Estiven Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
30'
30' Normal Goal | Juan Manuel Cuesta
Aryan Karnani
UCV
45+3'
45+3' Yellow Card | Jovanny Bolívar
UCV
61'
61' Normal Goal
Libertad Asuncion
64'
64' Substitution 1 | Marcelo Fernandez | assist/sub out: Pedro Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
66'
66' Substitution 1 | Samuel Sosa | assist/sub out: Alexander Granko
D. Čavić
UCV
68'
68' Yellow Card | Pedro Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
Metric
UCV
Libertad Asuncion
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.78
1.1
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
5
final
Shots off target
5
6
final
Shots on target
6
4
final
Udary vsego
14
15
final
Fouls soversheno
7
7
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
2
final
Offsides
1
0
final
UCV
#4 N. Gimenez, #5 D. Viera, #6 A. Campuzano, #10 L. Melgarejo, #12 R. M. Morinigo Acosta, #17 M. D. Espinoza Acosta, #21 L. Sanabria, #26 H. Caballero, #34 E. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
#2 K. Silva, #6 F. Solé, #7 J. Cuesta, #8 J. Zapata, #10 S. Sosa, #11 J. Bolívar, #13 G. Schiavone, #19 A. Simarra, #27 D. Carrillo, #30 A. González
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Adrián Martínez
football.player.assists
0
Adrián Martínez
Dribling popytki
6
Adrián Martínez
Dribling uspeshno
1
Adrián Martínez
Edinoborstva vsego
1
Adrián Martínez
Edinoborstva vyigrano
7
Adrián Martínez
Fouls na igroke
1
Adrián Martínez
Seyvy
0
Adrián Martínez
football.player.minutes_played
90
Adrián Martínez
Klyuchevye pasy
42
Adrián Martínez
Reyting (staryy)
7.7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
UCV
30.4%
-
Draw
30.9%
100.0%
draw risk
Libertad Asuncion
38.7%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 56.6%
-
Under 43.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.48
market consensus · line only
X
2.99
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.03
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.35
market consensus · line only
12
1.35
market consensus · line only
1X
1.51
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.38
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.11
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.44
market consensus · line only
2 +1
4.18
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.40
market consensus · value +35.8% · model 56.6%
Under 2.5
1.55
market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.76
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.97
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 3.00 33.3% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.50 40.0% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.15 31.8% | 2.81 35.6% | 3.12 32.1% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.00 33.3% | |
| X | 2.86 35.0% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.02 33.1% | 3.10 32.3% | 2.92 34.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.50 40.0% | 2.34 42.7% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.40 41.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.68 59.5% |
| yes | 1.91 52.4% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.91 52.4% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.04 49.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.35 74.1% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| home_away | 1.35 74.1% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.47 68.0% |
Match center
UCV
Founded
1950
Libertad Asuncion
Founded
1905
Match center
UCV
L
D
UCV
2:3
Corinthians
Corinthians
UCV
1:1
Corinthians
Corinthians
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.5
Scored
2.0
Conceded
1
Points
Libertad Asuncion
D
D
D
D
D
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
River Plate
Libertad Asuncion
0:0
River Plate
Libertad Asuncion
2:2
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
Sao Paulo
Libertad Asuncion
0:0
Talleres Cordoba
0
Wins
5
Draws
0
Losses
0.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyUCV - Libertad Asuncion
UCV
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form