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Start
29.04.2026 00:00 UTC
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29.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
UCV - Rosario Central
0
:
3
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction UCV - Rosario Central April 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rosario Central.
Line favourite market consensus: Rosario Central. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.79 / X 4.09 / 2 1.49
- 1X2 market: UCV 14.0% / X 23.0% / Rosario Central 63.0%
- Glicko: UCV - / X 100.0% / Rosario Central -
- Total 2.5: over probability 10.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
13.9%
X
23.0%
2
63.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
71.2%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
0:0
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
UCV - Rosario Central
UCV: Win 4.50 UCV: Draw 3.50 Rosario Central Win: 1.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.15 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov UCV bolshe 0.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov UCV menshe 0.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Rosario Central bolshe 1…
Form
4/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:3
Events
18
Statistics
24
Lineups
90
min
Event
Player
Team
9'
9' Yellow Card | Á. Di María
A. Di Maria
Rosario Central
20'
20' Yellow Card | F. Solé
F. Solé
UCV
35'
35' Normal Goal | G. Ávila
G. Avila
Rosario Central
37'
37' Yellow Card | F. Ibarra
F. Ibarra
Rosario Central
46'
46' Substitution 1 | A. Granko | assist/sub out: S. Sosa
A. Granko
UCV
46'
46' Substitution 1 | J. Fernández | assist/sub out: G. Fernández
J. Fernandez
Rosario Central
52'
52' Yellow Card | G. Schiavone
G. Schiavone
UCV
53'
53' Penalty | Á. Di María
A. Di Maria
Rosario Central
Metric
UCV
Rosario Central
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.16
1.94
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
2
final
Shots off target
7
5
final
Shots on target
3
4
final
Udary vsego
13
11
final
Fouls soversheno
13
11
final
Zheltye kartochki
3
3
final
Offsides
1
3
final
UCV
#3 A. Sandez, #5 F. Ibarra, #8 J. Campaz, #9 A. Veliz, #11 A. Di Maria, #13 G. Avila, #18 J. Fernandez, #20 Vicente Pizarro, #23 C. Ledesma, #32 E. Coronel, #46 I. Ovando
Rosario Central
#2 K. Silva, #3 R. Ramírez, #4 W. Velásquez, #6 F. Solé, #7 J. Cuesta, #8 J. Zapata, #11 J. Bolívar, #13 G. Schiavone, #24 Y. Cumaná, #30 A. González, #47 A. Granko
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Di Maria
UCV
Dribling popytki
4
A. Di Maria
UCV
Dribling uspeshno
2
A. Di Maria
UCV
Edinoborstva vyigrano
7
A. Di Maria
UCV
Fouls soversheno
3
A. Di Maria
UCV
Fouls na igroke
1
A. Di Maria
UCV
Seyvy
0
A. Di Maria
UCV
Tochnost pasov %
1
A. Di Maria
UCV
Klyuchevye pasy
27
A. Di Maria
UCV
Pasy vsego
1
A. Di Maria
UCV
Reyting (staryy)
7.3
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
UCV
20.5%
-
Draw
27.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Rosario Central
52.2%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 10.7%
-
Under 89.3%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.73
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.73
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.49
market consensus · line only
X
4.10
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
6.81
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.10
market consensus · line only
12
1.21
market consensus · line only
1X
2.54
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.15
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.02
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.47
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.79
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.97
market consensus · no value · model 10.7%
Under 2.5
1.82
market consensus · weak value +62.5% · model 89.3%
Both teams to score
No
1.71
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.03
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 7.00 14.3% | |
| X | 4.20 23.8% |
| 1.45 69.0% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.80 14.7% | 7.30 13.7% | 4.40 22.7% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.20 13.9% | 7.00 14.3% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.26 23.5% | 3.25 30.8% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.35 23.0% | 4.10 24.4% |
| 1.47 68.0% | 1.49 67.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.44 69.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.73 57.8% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.97 50.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.08 92.6% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_draw | 2.55 39.2% | 2.66 37.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.75 36.4% |
Match center
UCV
Founded
1950
Rosario Central
Founded
1889
Match center
UCV
L
W
L
D
UCV
1:3
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3:1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
UCV
2:3
Corinthians
Corinthians
UCV
1:1
Corinthians
Corinthians
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
2.0
Conceded
4
Points
Rosario Central
W
D
Rosario Central
1:0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Rosario Central
0:0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
1
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
0.5
Scored
0.0
Conceded
4
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyUCV - Rosario Central
UCV
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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