Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
15.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Universitario - Coquimbo Unido

World Football
Universitario
Universitario
0 : 2
Finished
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Universitario - Coquimbo Unido April 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Universitario.

Line favourite market consensus: Universitario. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.16 / 2 4.15
  • 1X2 market: Universitario 47.7% / X 29.7% / Coquimbo Unido 22.6%
  • Glicko: Universitario - / X 100.0% / Coquimbo Unido -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.8%
1 47.8%
X 29.6%
2 22.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 36.0%
Under 2.5 64.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/6
Confidence 71.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 15.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Match center

Universitario - Coquimbo Unido

Universitario: Win 1.95 Universitario: Draw 3.40 Coquimbo Unido Win: 3.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Universitario bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Universitario menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualn…

Form 5/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 42
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Normal Goal | Cristián Zavala | assist/sub out: Juan Cornejo O. Hernandez Coquimbo Unido
25' 25' Substitution 1 | Matías Di Benedetto | assist/sub out: César Inga S. Naveda Universitario
33' 33' Yellow Card | Sekou Gassama Universitario
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Cristián Zavala | assist/sub out: Luis Riveros O. Hernandez Coquimbo Unido
49' 49' Normal Goal | Nicolás Johansen Coquimbo Unido
59' 59' Substitution 2 | Sekou Gassama | assist/sub out: Bryan Reyna Universitario
59' 59' Substitution 3 | Sekou Gassama | assist/sub out: Bryan Reyna Universitario
64' 64' Substitution 3 | Alejandro Azócar | assist/sub out: Guido Vadala Coquimbo Unido
Metric Universitario Coquimbo Unido SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.31 1.86 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final
Shots off target 2 2 final
Shots on target 4 2 final
Udary vsego 8 5 final
Fouls soversheno 20 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Universitario #2 B. Gazzolo, #7 S. Galani, #8 A. Camargo, #9 N. Johansen, #11 A. E. Azocar Machuca, #15 C. Zavala, #16 J. Cornejo, #17 F. Salinas, #30 B. Chandia
Coquimbo Unido #2 C. Fara, #3 W. Riveros, #5 M. Di Benedetto, #6 J. Castillo, #17 J. Concha, #20 A. Valera, #24 A. Polo, #25 M. Vargas, #27 J. Carabalí, #90 S. Gassama, #99 Miguel Silveira
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Camargo Universitario football.player.assists 0
A. Camargo Universitario Dribling popytki 5
A. Camargo Universitario Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Camargo Universitario Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
A. Camargo Universitario Fouls soversheno 1
A. Camargo Universitario Seyvy 0
A. Camargo Universitario football.player.minutes_played 80
A. Camargo Universitario Klyuchevye pasy 27
A. Camargo Universitario Reyting (staryy) 6.7
A. Camargo Universitario Bloki 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Universitario 48.1% - market favourite
Draw 28.8% 100.0% draw risk
Coquimbo Unido 23.1% -
Total 2.5 Over 50.7% - Under 49.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.71
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.71

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.14 market consensus · line only
X 3.18 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.96 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.81 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.21 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.09 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.61 market consensus · value +32.2% · model 50.7%
Under 2.5 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 49.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.22 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.95 51.3%
X 3.40 29.4%
4.00 25.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.23 31.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%
4.30 23.3% 3.80 26.3% 4.32 23.2% 4.00 25.0% 4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.59 62.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5%
yes 2.20 45.5% 2.34 42.7% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.18 45.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
Match center
Universitario
Founded 1924
Coquimbo Unido
Founded 1957
Match center
Universitario
D D L D W
08.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Universitario 0:0 Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
22.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Universitario 0:0 PalmeirasPalmeiras
15.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Universitario 0:4 PalmeirasPalmeiras
28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Universitario 1:1 River Plate
15.05 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Universitario 1:0 Barcelona SCBarcelona SC
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Coquimbo Unido
D
08.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Coquimbo Unido 1:1 Club NacionalClub Nacional
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.