Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Boca Juniors go head-to-head with Estudiantes L.P. on August 5, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Boca Juniors 0-1-1, Estudiantes L.P. 2-0-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Boca Juniors — 44%
Pure model vs market (1 · Boca Juniors): model 36% · market 45% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Boca Juniors 44.3%, draw 31.4%, win Estudiantes L.P. 24.3%. Model favourite — Boca Juniors.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.57 63.7% |
| yes | 2.31 43.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.37 73.0% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.21 82.6% | 1.20 83.3% |
| x2 | 1.69 59.2% | 1.77 56.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.94 34.0% | |
| X | 1.90 52.6% |
| 4.71 21.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.26 44.3% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.05 | 3 | 4.15 |
| Winline | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4 |
| Fonbet | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4.05 |
| Betcity | 2.16 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.05 | 2.95 | 4.1 |
Boca Juniors
Nyuells Old Boys
Deportivo Riestra
Estudiantes L.P.
Defensa i Khustisiya
Independente
Full head-to-head historyBoca Juniors - Estudiantes L.P.
Boka Khuniors Estudiantes LP 19 Games 19 8 Wins 10 7 Draws 4 Losses 5 26 Scored 22 17 Conceded 10 31 Points 34 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13 Shots on goal 14.67 3.89 Udary v stvor 4 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.16 Uglovye 4 1.63 Offsaydy 1.05 8.89 Foly 10.68 59.32 % vladeniya myachom 52.21 1.89 Warnings 2.63 0 Sendoffs 0.11 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Klaudio Fernando Ubeda Glavnye trenery Aleksander Medina Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 100% 0% 0% Double chance 50% 50% 0% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1291282' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Argentina — Primera Turnirnaya Standings
The Boca Juniors - Estudiantes L.P. breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
