Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto — 36%
Pure model vs market (1 · Estudiantes Rio Cuarto): model 47% · market 34% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 36.5%, draw 32.6%, win Banfield 31.0%. Model favourite — Estudiantes Rio Cuarto.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 36% on the line (odds 2.82)
- • edge over the line +14 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Estudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 2.85 / 2 2.91
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Estudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.53 65.4% |
| yes | 2.39 41.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% |
| 1x | 1.38 72.5% | 1.38 72.5% |
| x2 | 1.41 70.9% | 1.42 70.4% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.60 27.8% | |
| X | 1.82 55.0% |
| 3.96 25.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.11 47.4% |
Tigre
Atletiko Khurakan
Full head-to-head historyEstudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield
Match history
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The Estudiantes Rio Cuarto - Banfield breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form