Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — 35%
Pure model vs market (1 · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto): model 47% · market 34% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 35.0%, draw 32.7%, win Banfield 32.3%. Model favourite — Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.59 62.9% |
| yes | 2.28 43.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.40 71.4% |
| 1x | 1.37 73.0% | 1.38 72.5% |
| x2 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.42 70.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.64 27.5% | |
| X | 1.85 54.1% |
| 3.77 26.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.16 46.3% |
Tigre
Atletiko Khurakan
Full head-to-head historyEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto - Banfield
Estudiantes RK Banfild 18 Games 18 2 Wins 6 2 Draws 3 14 Losses 9 6 Scored 20 27 Conceded 22 8 Points 21 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 10 Shots on goal 0 2.5 Udary v stvor 3.61 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.06 Uglovye 3.5 1.56 Offsaydy 2.17 10.28 Foly 10.39 44.56 % vladeniya myachom 40.78 2.06 Warnings 2.39 0.17 Sendoffs 0.17 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 0% 0% 100% Double chance 0% 50% 50% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1291258' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Argentina — Primera Turnirnaya Standings
The Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto - Banfield breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
