PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Not started

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Union Santa Fe

Football
G
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- : -
Not started
U
Union Santa Fe
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Union Santa Fe — 37%

Pure model vs market (2 · Union Santa Fe): model 31% · market 36% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza32.0%
X · draw31.2%
2 · Union Santa Fe36.8%

Model estimate: win Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 32.0%, draw 31.2%, win Union Santa Fe 36.8%. Model favourite — Union Santa Fe.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.94) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 34% on the line (odds 2.94)
  • • edge over the line +16 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Union Santa Fe July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Union Santa Fe. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.09 / X 2.99 / 2 2.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 31.5%
X 32.5%
2 36.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Match center

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Union Santa Fe

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 31.0% 32.0%
Draw 31.8% 31.2% draw risk
Union Santa Fe 37.2% 36.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.0% / 31.2% / 36.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,569 / 1,519 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza / Union Santa Fe
RD 280 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,010-2,128 / 937-2,102 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.56 market consensus · no value · model 36.8%
X 2.94 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.98 market consensus · no value · model 32.0%
Double chance
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 68.8%
1X 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 63.2%
X2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 68.0%
Handicap
2 0 1.74 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.01 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.48 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.73 57.8%
yes 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5%
1x 1.48 67.6% 1.43 69.9%
x2 1.35 74.1% 1.39 71.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.78 26.5%
X 1.93 51.8%
3.36 29.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.31 43.3%
Under 1 1.55 64.5%
Match center
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
W W
28.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 3:1 San-LorensoSan-Lorenso
24.07 17:45 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1:0 Sentral KordobaSentral Kordoba
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
Union Santa Fe
D
24.07 22:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Union Santa Fe 2:2 Platense
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points