Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Union Santa Fe — 39%
Pure model vs market (2 · Union Santa Fe): model 31% · market 39% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Gimnasia M. 30.4%, draw 31.0%, win Union Santa Fe 38.6%. Model favourite — Union Santa Fe.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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football, Khimnasiya i Esgrima M - Union, 1 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Khimnasiya i Esgrima M - Union, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.72 58.1% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| 1x | 1.52 65.8% | 1.53 65.4% |
| x2 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.32 75.8% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.07 24.6% | |
| X | 1.93 51.8% |
| 3.17 31.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.31 43.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.55 64.5% |
San-Lorenso
Sentral Kordoba
Full head-to-head historyGimnasia M. - Union Santa Fe
Khimnasiya and Esgrima M Union 18 Games 19 6 Wins 6 4 Draws 7 8 Losses 6 15 Scored 28 23 Conceded 25 22 Points 25 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13.67 Shots on goal 13.8 3.5 Udary v stvor 5.42 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.33 Uglovye 5.05 1 Offsaydy 1.95 11.17 Foly 11.05 42.94 % vladeniya myachom 48.68 2.28 Warnings 2.53 0.11 Sendoffs 0.05 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery No dannykh Glavnye trenery Leonardo Madelon Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 100% 0% 0% Double chance 50% 50% 0% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1291260' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Argentina — Primera Turnirnaya Standings
The Gimnasia M. - Union Santa Fe breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
