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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
29.07.2026 22:15 UTC
29.07.2026 22:15 UTC
Not started

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Independiente - Newell's Old Boys

Football
Independiente
Independiente
- : -
Not started
N
Newell's Old Boys
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Newell's Old Boys — 55%

1 · Independiente26.3%
X · draw18.4%
2 · Newell's Old Boys ✓ Pick55.2%

Model estimate: win Independiente 26.3%, draw 18.4%, win Newell's Old Boys 55.2%. Model favourite — Newell's Old Boys.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Newell's Old Boys (odds1.81) Score 1:2 confidence 55%
  • • Model backs Nyuells Old Boys: probability 55% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independiente - Newell's Old Boys July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Independiente. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.65 / X 3.60 / 2 5.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 57.0%
X 26.1%
2 ✓ Pick 16.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 22:15 UTC
Match center

Independiente - Newell's Old Boys

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Independiente - 26.3%
Draw - 18.4% draw risk
Newell's Old Boys - 55.2% model pick

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 26.3% / 18.4% / 55.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,220 / 1,500 Independiente / Newell's Old Boys
RD 217 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 787-1,653 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.60 market consensus · weak value +209.3% · model 55.2%
X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 26.3%
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · weak value +2.8% · model 81.6%
1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 44.8%
X2 2.16 market consensus · weak value +59.1% · model 73.7%
Handicap
2 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.18 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.30 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.26 79.4%
1x 1.12 89.3%
x2 2.16 46.3%

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
2.18 45.9%
1.64 61.0%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 2.5 1.58 63.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.65 60.6%
X 3.60 27.8%
5.60 17.9%
Match center
Independiente
L
26.07 18:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Independiente 1:2 EstudiantesEstudiantes
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Newell's Old Boys
L
25.07 18:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Newell's Old Boys 0:1 Taleres Kordoba
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points