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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
28.07.2026 20:15 UTC
28.07.2026 20:15 UTC
Not started

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Khimnasiya i Esgrima - River Plate

Football
K
Khimnasiya i Esgrima
- : -
Not started
River Plate
River Plate
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 River Plate — 45%

Pure model vs market (2 · River Plate): model 51% · market 44% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Khimnasiya i Esgrima24.7%
X · draw30.8%
2 · River Plate44.5%

Model estimate: win Khimnasiya i Esgrima 24.7%, draw 30.8%, win River Plate 44.5%. Model favourite — River Plate.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2River Plate (odds1.61) Score 0:2 confidence 62%
  • • Model backs River Pleyt: probability 62% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.61)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Khimnasiya i Esgrima - River Plate July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: River Plate. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.90 / X 3.10 / 2 2.17

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.0%
1 24.7%
X 31.0%
2 44.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 20:15 UTC
Match center

Khimnasiya i Esgrima - River Plate

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Khimnasiya i Esgrima 24.4% 24.7%
Draw 31.4% 30.8% draw risk
River Plate 44.2% 44.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.7% / 30.8% / 44.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,285 / 1,605 Khimnasiya i Esgrima / River Plate
RD 276 / 145 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 733-1,836 / 1,315-1,895 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 44.5%
X 3.00 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.85 market consensus · no value · model 24.7%
Double chance
12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 69.2%
1X 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 55.5%
X2 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.43 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.67 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.50 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.16 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.65 60.6%
yes 2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.36 73.5% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5%
x2 1.23 81.3% 1.23 81.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.53 22.1%
X 1.92 52.1%
2.96 33.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 0.5 2.31 43.3%
Match center
Khimnasiya i Esgrima
L
24.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Khimnasiya i Esgrima 1:2 RasingRasing
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
River Plate
W
25.07 20:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
River Plate 4:0 Barrakas SentralBarrakas Sentral
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points