Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Racing Santander - Tigre
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Tigre — 49%
Model estimate: win Racing Santander 31.4%, draw 20.0%, win Tigre 48.6%. Model favourite — Tigre.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Tigre: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.53)
- • edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Racing Santander - Tigre July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.03 / X 3.10 / 2 4.40
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Racing Santander - Tigre
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.57 63.7% |
| yes | 2.31 43.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.19 84.0% | 1.19 84.0% |
| x2 | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.85 35.1% | |
| X | 1.87 53.5% |
| 5.20 19.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.26 44.3% |
Racing Santander
Tigre
Full head-to-head historyRacing Santander - Tigre
Match history
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The Racing Santander - Tigre breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form