Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Sarmiento Junin meet Independ. Rivadavia on August 3, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Sarmiento Junin 0-0-2, Independ. Rivadavia 1-1-0. Sportsbooks lean towards Independ. Rivadavia, an implied 41% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Independ. Rivadavia — 42%
Pure model vs market (2 · Independ. Rivadavia): model 55% · market 41% Δ +14 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Sarmiento Junin 26.8%, draw 31.0%, win Independ. Rivadavia 42.2%. Model favourite — Independ. Rivadavia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independ. Rivadavia.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.55 28.2% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.40 29.4% | |
| X | 2.96 33.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.95 33.9% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.24 44.6% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.72 58.1% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.36 73.5% |
| 1x | 1.58 63.3% | 1.63 61.4% |
| x2 | 1.26 79.4% | 1.26 79.4% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 0_1 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 0_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_4 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 0_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_1 | 5.25 19.1% |
| 1_2 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 1_3 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 1_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 1_5 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 2_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 2_4 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 3_0 | 41.00 2.4% |
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletiko Khurakan
Atletiko Tukuman
Full head-to-head historySarmiento Junin - Independ. Rivadavia
Atletiko Sarmento Independente Rivadaviya 18 Games 19 6 Wins 11 1 Draws 5 11 Losses 3 17 Scored 32 26 Conceded 18 19 Points 38 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 9 Shots on goal 14.67 3.39 Udary v stvor 4.47 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.67 Uglovye 4.05 1.61 Offsaydy 2.11 12.83 Foly 10.74 49.39 % vladeniya myachom 45.42 3.17 Warnings 1.95 0.22 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 25% 25% 50% Double chance 25% 37% 38% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1291240' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Argentina — Primera Turnirnaya Standings
The Sarmiento Junin - Independ. Rivadavia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
