Pisa take on Empoli on August 17, 2026 in the Italy. Serie B.
Recent form (W-D-L): Pisa 2-0-3, Empoli 2-2-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Pisa — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · Pisa): model 44% · market 52%Δ −8 ppmodel estimates below the market
51%1
1 · Pisa51.2%
X · draw26.8%
2 · Empoli22.1%
Model estimate: win Pisa 51.2%, draw 26.8%, win Empoli 22.1%. Model favourite — Pisa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Pisa - Empoli August 17, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Pisa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.82 / X 3.45 / 2 4.40
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.95↓ 1.82
1X2 X3.30↑ 3.45
1X2 P23.90↑ 4.40
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Coppa Italia
Best price
across 12 books
12.00SBO
X3.45Unibet
24.20Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Pisa
51%
1.85
Draw
27%
3.50
Empoli
21%
4.40
Handicap
Pisa (0)
70%
1.32
Empoli (0)
30%
3.20
Total
Over 2.5
46%
2.05
Under 2.5
54%
1.77
Both teams to score
Yes
49%
1.92
No
51%
1.85
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
11.84
X3.40
24.24
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Pisa51.6%51.2%market and model agree
Draw27.0%26.8%draw risk
Empoli21.4%22.1%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P251.2% / 26.8% / 22.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
24.40
Fonbet · no value · model 22.1%
X3.45
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.82
Fonbet · no value · model 51.2%
Double chance
121.30
Fonbet · no value · model 73.2%
1X1.19
Fonbet · no value · model 77.9%
X21.92
Fonbet · no value · model 48.8%
Handicap
2 -11.48
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.51.92
market consensus · line only
2 +17.30
Fonbet · line only
2 02.95
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.52.02
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.75
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.85
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.90
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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