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Cup
Cup Russia
05.03.2026 15:30 UTC
Finished

Cup

Russia

Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv

Russia Football
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
1 : 2
Finished
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv March 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lokomotiv.

Line favourite market consensus: Lokomotiv. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.55 / X 4.35 / 2 1.46
  • 1X2 market: Arsenal Tula 14.4% / X 21.5% / Lokomotiv 64.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.7%
1 14.3%
X 21.5%
2 64.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 54.5%
Under 2.5 45.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.03.2026 15:30 UTC
Match center

Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.46 market consensus · line only
X 4.35 market consensus · line only
1 6.55 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.10 market consensus · line only
12 1.21 market consensus · line only
1X 2.65 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.75 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 2.68 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus
6.10 16.4% 7.46 13.4% 6.75 14.8% 6.69 15.0% 5.61 17.8% 6.69 15.0%
X 4.30 23.3% 4.72 21.2% 4.45 22.5% 4.31 23.2% 3.98 25.1% 4.31 23.2%
1.38 72.5% 1.48 67.6% 1.43 69.9% 1.51 66.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.51 66.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.79 55.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2%
yes 2.00 50.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.13 88.5% 1.06 94.3% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.23 81.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.24 80.7%
home_draw 2.85 35.1% 2.69 37.2% 2.67 37.5% 2.39 41.8% 2.67 37.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.25 1.49 67.1%
Over 2.5 1.79 55.9%
Over 2.75 1.97 50.8% 1.86 53.8%
Over 3.0 2.11 47.4% 2.15 46.5%
Over 3.25 2.43 41.2%
Over 3.5 2.68 37.3%
Over 3.75 3.20 31.3%
Over 4.0 4.30 23.3%
Under 2.75 1.85 54.1%
Under 3.0 1.71 58.5%
Match center
Arsenal Tula
D W W W D
25.11 17:30 UTC Cup
Arsenal Tula 0:0 RubinRubin
30.10 16:30 UTC Cup
Arsenal Tula 3:2 FakelFakel
15.10 16:30 UTC Cup
Arsenal Tula 1:0 FK Sokol Saratov
25.09 17:00 UTC Cup
Arsenal Tula 3:0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
26.09 15:00 UTC Cup
Arsenal Tula 1:1 Znamya TrudaZnamya Truda
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Lokomotiv
L L W D W
26.11 17:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 2:3 Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva
06.11 16:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 1:3 Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva
23.10 18:00 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 2:1 BaltikaBaltika
01.10 17:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 0:0 CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
16.09 15:45 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 3:1 AkronAkron
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal Tula - Lokomotiv

Arsenal Tula
0 matches total
Lokomotiv
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history