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Cup Russia

08.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

08.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Cup

Dynamo - FC Krasnodar

Russia Football

Stadium VTB Arena

Dynamo

0 : 0

Finished

FC Krasnodar

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FC Krasnodar — 39%

1 · Dynamo37.0%

X · draw24.1%

2 · FC Krasnodar39.0%

Model estimate: win Dynamo 37.0%, draw 24.1%, win FC Krasnodar 39.0%. Model favourite — FC Krasnodar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dynamo - FC Krasnodar April 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Dynamo.

Line favourite market consensus: Dynamo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.47 / 2 2.73
1X2 market: Dynamo 38.4% / X 27.1% / FC Krasnodar 34.5%
Glicko: Dynamo 37.0% / X 24.1% / FC Krasnodar 39.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 16.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 38.4%

X 27.1%

2 34.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.9%

Over 2.5 53.7%

Under 2.5 46.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 2/4

Confidence 38.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 08.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Stadium VTB Arena (Moskva)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model FC Krasnodar 39%

💹 Market Dynamo 3842%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Dynamo - FC Krasnodar

Dynamo: Win 2.80 Dynamo: Draw 3.70 FC Krasnodar Win: 2.47 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.69 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Dynamo bolshe 1.5: 2.26 Individualnyy total golov Dynamo menshe 1.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov FC Krasnodar bo…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 16

Statistics 14

Lineups 35

min Event Player Team

17' 17' Yellow Card FC Krasnodar

26' 26' Yellow Card Dynamo

28' 28' Yellow Card | Aleksandr Chernikov N. Cavlina FC Krasnodar

42' 42' Yellow Card | Valentin Paltsev FC Krasnodar

45' 45' Substitution 1 | Roberto Fernández | assist/sub out: Dmitri Skopintsev Dynamo

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Yaroslav Gladyshev | assist/sub out: Anton Miranchuk Dynamo

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Vítor Tormena | assist/sub out: Diego Costa FC Krasnodar

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Valentin Paltsev | assist/sub out: Giovanni González FC Krasnodar

Metric Dynamo FC Krasnodar SStats

Shots off target 11 6 final

Shots on target 3 1 final

Udary vsego 14 7 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final

Ball possession, % 44 56 final

Corners 8 3 final

Dynamo #1 S. Agkatsev, #3 Vítor Tormena, #5 Jubal, #10 E. Spertsyan, #11 Batxi, #15 L. Olaza, #17 V. Paltsev, #23 J. Boselli, #53 A. Chernikov, #88 N. Krivtsov, #90 M. Cobnan

FC Krasnodar #2 N. Marichal, #4 J. Cáceres, #10 Bitello, #13 N. Moumi Ngamaleu, #44 Rubens, #57 David Ricardo, #70 K. Tyukavin, #74 D. Fomin, #91 Y. Gladyshev

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Dynamo 35.1% 37.0%

Draw 26.6% 24.1% draw risk

FC Krasnodar 38.3% 39.0% market and model agree

xG - 1.50 : 1.55

Total 2.5 Over 16.4% - Under 83.6%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 37.0% / 24.1% / 39.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,708 / 1,714 Dynamo / FC Krasnodar

RD 121 / 125 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.73 market consensus · no value · model 39.0%

X 3.47 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%

Double chance

X2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 63.0%

12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 75.9%

1X 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 61.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.85 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.66 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.79 market consensus · no value · model 16.4%

Under 2.5 2.08 market consensus · weak value +73.8% · model 83.6%

Both teams to score

No 2.29 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Dafabet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SBO
	2.48 40.3%	2.49 40.2%	2.47 40.5%	2.46 40.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.32 43.1%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.64 27.5%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.57 28.0%	3.12 32.1%
	2.60 38.5%	2.91 34.4%	2.65 37.7%	2.88 34.7%	2.86 35.0%	2.50 40.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Marathonbet
no	2.45 40.8%	2.22 45.1%	2.19 45.7%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Marathonbet	SBO
draw_away	1.60 62.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.43 69.9%
home_away	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.23 81.3%
home_draw	1.47 68.0%	1.46 68.5%	1.37 73.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.55 64.5%
Over 2.5	—	1.83 54.6%
Over 2.75	1.88 53.2%	1.93 51.8%
Over 3.0	—	2.24 44.6%
Over 3.25	—	2.52 39.7%
Over 3.5	—	2.80 35.7%
Over 3.75	—	3.28 30.5%
Over 4.0	—	4.33 23.1%
Over 4.25	—	4.60 21.7%
Under 2.75	2.01 49.8%	—

Match center

Dynamo

Founded 1923

FC Krasnodar

Founded 2007

Match center

Dynamo

L W L W W

18.03 17:45 UTC Cup

Dynamo 0:1 Spartak Moskva

05.03 17:45 UTC Cup

Dynamo 5:2 Spartak Moskva

27.11 17:30 UTC Cup

Dynamo 0:1 Zenit

05.11 17:30 UTC Cup

Dynamo 3:1 Zenit

22.10 15:00 UTC Cup

Dynamo 4:0 Krylya Sovetov

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

FC Krasnodar

W L W W W

17.03 16:30 UTC Cup

FC Krasnodar 4:0 CSKA Moscow

04.03 17:45 UTC Cup

FC Krasnodar 1:3 CSKA Moscow

26.11 15:00 UTC Cup

FC Krasnodar 4:0 FC Orenburg

05.11 13:00 UTC Cup

FC Krasnodar 3:1 FC Orenburg

23.10 15:30 UTC Cup

FC Krasnodar 3:0 FC Sochi

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

3.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDynamo - FC Krasnodar

Dynamo

2 matches total

FC Krasnodar

Dynamo: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

FC Krasnodar: 1 (50%)

Biggest win FC Krasnodar 0:4 (13.08 17:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 13.08 17:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (30.09 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.09 17:30 UTC

Cup

Dinamo

0:0

FC Krasnodar

13.08 17:45 UTC

Cup

Dinamo

0:4

FC Krasnodar

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.