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Cup Russia

1-y raund 29.07.2026 15:00 UTC

29.07.2026 15:00 UTC 1-y raund

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Cup

Ilpar - Metallurg Asha

Russia Football

Ilpar

- : -

Not started

Metallurg Asha

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Ilpar — 37%

Pure model vs market (1 · Ilpar): model 45% · market 37% Δ +8 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Ilpar37.2%

X · draw26.4%

2 · Metallurg Asha36.4%

Model estimate: win Ilpar 37.2%, draw 26.4%, win Metallurg Asha 36.4%. Model favourite — Ilpar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Ilpar (odds2.52) Score 1:0 Under 2.5 (odds1.80) Handicap H1 +0 (odds1.85) confidence 50%

• Model backs Ilpar: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.52)
• edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.80)
• Handicap F1 +0: score forecast 1:0 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ilpar - Metallurg Asha July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ilpar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.45 / X 3.38 / 2 2.46

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.1%

1 36.8%

X 26.6%

2 36.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 2.45 → 2.45

1X2 X 3.38 → 3.38

1X2 P2 2.46 → 2.46

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Ilpar 1 : 5 Metallurg Asha

12.47

X3.32

22.48

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 15:00 UTC

Match center

Ilpar - Metallurg Asha

Football, Ilpar - Metallurg A, 29 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Ilpar - Metallurg A, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Fonbet Cup Russia 2026/2027, 1 round.

Form 2/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Ilpar 36.7% 37.2% market and model agree

Draw 26.6% 26.4% draw risk

Metallurg Asha 36.7% 36.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 37.2% / 26.4% / 36.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,521 / 1,500 Ilpar / Metallurg Asha

RD 266 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 989-2,052 / 800-2,200 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.46 Fonbet · no value · model 36.4%

X 3.38 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 Fonbet · no value · model 37.2%

Double chance

12 1.23 Fonbet · no value · model 73.6%

1X 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 63.6%

X2 1.42 Fonbet · no value · model 62.8%

Handicap

2 -1 1.18 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 4.05 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.85 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 4.05 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	2.00 50.0%	2.06 48.5%
yes	1.72 58.1%	1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.24 80.7%	1.24 80.7%	1.23 81.3%
1x	1.43 69.9%	1.48 67.6%	1.40 71.4%
x2	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.42 70.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	3.32 30.1%
X	2.18 45.9%
	3.29 30.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.88 53.2%
Under 1	1.93 51.8%

Match center

Ilpar

Country Russia

Metallurg Asha

Country Russia

Match center

Ilpar

L W

21.08 14:00 UTC Cup

Ilpar 1:4 Tyumen

06.08 13:00 UTC Cup

Ilpar 3:2 Nosta

1 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

3.0 Conceded

3 Points

Metallurg Asha

D D D

02.08.2023 Championat

02.08.2023 Fonbet Cup Russia Ilpar 1 : 3 Torpedo Miass 1/256 finala Metallurg Asha

19.11.2021 Championat

19.11.2021 Russia - Tretiy Division Raspadskaya 1 : 0 Ilpar 7th Place Final. 1-y Round 1 Wins 0 Draws 4 Losses 1 Scored 2 Conceded 6+1 Kartochki +1 +1 0 +3 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 15 30 45 60 75 Metallurg Asha

23.10.2021 Championat

23.10.2021 Russia - Tretiy Division Metallurg A Metallurg Asha

0 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

- Scored

- Conceded

0 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyIlpar - Metallurg Asha

Ilpar

0 matches total

Metallurg Asha

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Ilpar

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Metallurg Asha

0 Games 0

0 Wins 0

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 0

0 Scored 0

0 Conceded 0

0 Points 0

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Udary v stvor 0

0 Games 0

0 Wins 0

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 0

0 Scored 0

0 Conceded 0

Ilpar Metallurg A 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Maksim Alekseevich Shumaylov Glavnye trenery Vladimir Mikhaylovich Usin Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 31% 22% 47% Double chance 27% 38% 35% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1317538' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Fonbet Cup Russia Turnirnaya Standings