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Cup
Cup Russia
26.11.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

Cup

Russia

Lokomotiv - Spartak Moscow

Russia Football
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
2 : 3
Finished
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lokomotiv - Spartak Moscow November 26, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lokomotiv.

Line favourite market consensus: Lokomotiv. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 3.56 / 2 2.71
  • 1X2 market: Lokomotiv 38.9% / X 26.5% / Spartak Moscow 34.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 38.9%
X 26.4%
2 34.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.0%
Over 2.5 54.6%
Under 2.5 45.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 26.11.2025 17:30 UTC
Match center

Lokomotiv - Spartak Moscow

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.71 market consensus · line only
X 3.56 market consensus · line only
1 2.42 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.46 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.76 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.55 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.28 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus
2.20 45.5% 2.52 39.7% 2.48 40.3% 2.48 40.3% 2.37 42.2% 2.48 40.3%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.74 26.7% 3.68 27.2% 3.62 27.6% 3.20 31.3% 3.62 27.6%
2.64 37.9% 2.80 35.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.78 36.0% 2.53 39.5% 2.78 36.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.26 44.3% 2.28 43.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.34 42.7%
yes 1.59 62.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.59 62.9% 1.58 63.3% 1.57 63.7% 1.43 69.9% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.32 75.8% 1.31 76.3% 1.31 76.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.31 76.3%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.49 67.1% 1.47 68.0% 1.38 72.5% 1.47 68.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.0 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.25 1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5 1.79 55.9%
Over 2.75 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Over 3.0 2.20 45.5%
Over 3.25 2.48 40.3%
Over 3.5 2.77 36.1%
Over 3.75 3.30 30.3%
Over 4.0 4.40 22.7%
Over 4.25 4.75 21.1%
Over 4.5 5.10 19.6%
Under 2.75 1.92 52.1%
Match center
Lokomotiv
L W D W W
06.11 16:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 1:3 Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva
23.10 18:00 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 2:1 BaltikaBaltika
01.10 17:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 0:0 CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
16.09 15:45 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 3:1 AkronAkron
28.08 16:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv 2:0 AkronAkron
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Spartak Moscow
W W W L W
06.11 16:30 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 3:1 LokomotivLokomotiv
21.10 15:00 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 3:1 Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala
01.10 15:00 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 2:1 Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod
18.09 17:45 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 1:2 FC RostovFC Rostov
26.08 17:45 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 4:0 Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLokomotiv - Spartak Moscow

Lokomotiv
1 matches total
Spartak Moscow
Lokomotiv: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Spartak Moscow: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Spartak Moskva 1:3 (06.11 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 06.11 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

06.11 16:30 UTC Cup
Lokomotiv
1:3
Spartak Moskva