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Cup
Cup Russia
06.05.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
06.05.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Cup

Russia

Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow

Russia Football
Stadium Lukoyl Arena
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
1 : 0
Finished
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Spartak Moscow — 53%

1 · Spartak Moscow53.0%
X · draw24.0%
2 · CSKA Moscow23.0%

Model estimate: win Spartak Moscow 53.0%, draw 24.0%, win CSKA Moscow 23.0%. Model favourite — Spartak Moscow.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow May 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Spartak Moscow.

Strongest: Spartak Moscow - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.78 / X 3.80 / 2 4.21
  • 1X2 market: Spartak Moscow 52.8% / X 24.8% / CSKA Moscow 22.4%
  • Glicko: Spartak Moscow 53.0% / X 24.0% / CSKA Moscow 23.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 13.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 52.9%
X 24.8%
2 22.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.7%
Over 2.5 50.8%
Under 2.5 49.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 58.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 06.05.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Lukoyl Arena (Moskva)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Spartak Moscow 53%
💹 Market Spartak Moscow 5280%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow

Spartak Moscow: Win 1.85 Spartak Moscow: Draw 3.80 CSKA Moscow Win: 4.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.84 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.99 Individualnyy total golov Spartak Moscow bolshe 1.5: 1.87 Individualnyy total golov Spartak Moscow menshe 1.5: 1.94 Individual…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 16
Statistics 14
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Normal Goal Spartak Moscow
22' 22' Yellow Card CSKA Moscow
40' 40' Yellow Card | R. Litvinov R. Litvinov Spartak Moscow
46' 46' Substitution 1 | L. Gondou | assist/sub out: K. Glebov L. Gondou CSKA Moscow
60' 60' Substitution 1 | Marquinhos | assist/sub out: C. Martins Marquinhos Spartak Moscow
61' 61' Yellow Card CSKA Moscow
63' 63' Substitution 2 | A. Bandikyan | assist/sub out: M. Popovic A. Bandikyan CSKA Moscow
68' 68' Yellow Card CSKA Moscow
Metric Spartak Moscow CSKA Moscow SStats
Shots off target 5 2 final
Shots on target 5 6 final
Udary vsego 10 8 final
Red cards 0 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Ball possession, % 50 50 final
Corners 5 7 final
Spartak Moscow #9 M. Ugalde, #10 Marquinhos, #18 N. Umyarov, #47 R. Zobnin, #98 A. Maksimenko, #4 A. Djiku, #5 E. Barco, #68 R. Litvinov, #3 C. Wooh, #7 P. Solari, #83 Gedson Fernandes
CSKA Moscow #3 D. Krugovoy, #6 D. Barinov, #9 L. Gondou, #11 T. Musaev, #49 V. Torop, #10 I. Oblyakov, #31 M. Kislyak, #79 M. Zea, #4 João Victor, #52 A. Bandikyan, #22 M. Gajić
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Spartak Moscow 52.5% 53.0% market and model agree
Draw 24.7% 24.0% draw risk
CSKA Moscow 22.8% 23.0%
xG - 1.71 : 1.04
Total 2.5 Over 13.5% - Under 86.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.0% / 24.0% / 23.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,780 / 1,724 Spartak Moscow / CSKA Moscow
RD 114 / 114 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.95 Fonbet · no value · model 23.0%
X 4.05 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.88 Fonbet · no value · model 53.0%
Double chance
X2 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 47.0%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
1X 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 77.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.00 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.95 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 13.5%
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · weak value +69.5% · model 86.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet Dafabet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO
1.84 54.4% 1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.81 55.3% 1.70 58.8%
X 4.01 24.9% 3.70 27.0% 4.05 24.7% 3.98 25.1% 3.28 30.5%
4.38 22.8% 3.95 25.3% 4.55 22.0% 4.22 23.7% 3.93 25.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet
no 1.97 50.8% 1.94 51.6%
yes 1.76 56.8% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet SBO
draw_away 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2%
home_away 1.29 77.5% 1.27 78.7% 1.16 86.2%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.09 91.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.0 1.40 71.4%
Over 2.25 1.70 58.8%
Over 2.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 2.75 2.06 48.5%
Over 3.0 2.49 40.2%
Over 3.25 2.81 35.6%
Over 3.5 3.12 32.1%
Over 3.75 3.76 26.6%
Over 4.0 5.25 19.1%
Over 4.25 5.58 17.9%
Over 4.5 5.95 16.8%
Over 4.75 9.40 10.6%
Match center
Spartak Moscow
Founded 1922
CSKA Moscow
Founded 1911
Match center
Spartak Moscow
D W L W W
08.04 17:45 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 0:0 ZenitZenit
18.03 17:45 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 1:0 DinamoDinamo
05.03 17:45 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 2:5 DinamoDinamo
26.11 17:30 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 3:2 LokomotivLokomotiv
06.11 16:30 UTC Cup
Spartak Moscow 3:1 LokomotivLokomotiv
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
CSKA Moscow
W L W W L
07.04 15:00 UTC Cup
CSKA Moscow 5:2 Krylya SovetovKrylya Sovetov
17.03 16:30 UTC Cup
CSKA Moscow 0:4 FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
04.03 17:45 UTC Cup
CSKA Moscow 3:1 FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
26.11 15:00 UTC Cup
CSKA Moscow 2:1 Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala
05.11 15:15 UTC Cup
CSKA Moscow 0:1 Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.