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Cup Russia

08.04.2026 17:45 UTC Match prediction

08.04.2026 17:45 UTC

Finished

Cup

Zenit - Spartak Moscow

Russia Football

Stadium Gazprom Arena

Zenit

0 : 0

Finished

Spartak Moscow

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Zenit — 46%

1 · Zenit45.6%

X · draw24.4%

2 · Spartak Moscow30.0%

Model estimate: win Zenit 45.6%, draw 24.4%, win Spartak Moscow 30.0%. Model favourite — Zenit.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Zenit - Spartak Moscow April 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Zenit.

Strongest: Zenit - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.32 / 2 3.23
1X2 market: Zenit 42.6% / X 28.3% / Spartak Moscow 29.2%
Glicko: Zenit 45.6% / X 24.4% / Spartak Moscow 30.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 13.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 42.6%

X 28.3%

2 29.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.7%

Over 2.5 49.2%

Under 2.5 50.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 45.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 08.04.2026 17:45 UTC

Stadium Gazprom Arena (Sankt-Peterburg)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Zenit 46%

💹 Market Zenit 4258%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Zenit - Spartak Moscow

Zenit: Win 2.33 Zenit: Draw 3.40 Spartak Moscow Win: 3.18 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.94 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.89 Individualnyy total golov Zenit bolshe 1.5: 2.23 Individualnyy total golov Zenit menshe 1.5: 1.66 Individualnyy total golov Spartak Moscow bo…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 8

Statistics 12

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

31' 31' Yellow Card Spartak Moscow

34' 34' Yellow Card | Daniil Denisov Spartak Moscow

42' 42' Yellow Card Zenit

44' 44' Missed Penalty | Esequiel Barco | assist/sub out: Esequiel Barco Spartak Moscow

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Pablo Solari | assist/sub out: Igor Dmitriev Spartak Moscow

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Daniil Denisov | assist/sub out: Christopher Martins Pereira Spartak Moscow

61' 61' Substitution 1 | Pedro | assist/sub out: Maksim Glushenkov Zenit

61' 61' Substitution 2 | Jhon Durán | assist/sub out: Aleksandr Sobolev Matisse Martin Zenit

Metric Zenit Spartak Moscow SStats

Shots off target 4 3 final

Shots on target 2 2 final

Udary vsego 4 3 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Ball possession, % 63 37 final

Corners 3 4 final

Zenit #3 C. Wooh, #4 A. Djiku, #5 E. Barco, #7 P. Solari, #18 N. Umyarov, #47 R. Zobnin, #68 R. Litvinov, #83 Gedson Fernandes, #97 D. Denisov, #98 A. Maksimenko

Spartak Moscow #1 E. Latyshonok, #3 Douglas Santos, #5 W. Barrios, #6 V. Drkušić, #8 Wendel, #9 J. Durán, #11 Luiz Henrique, #17 A. Mostovoy, #28 N. Alip, #33 Nino

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Zenit 45.6% 45.6% market and model agree

Draw 27.9% 24.4% draw risk

Spartak Moscow 26.5% 30.0%

xG - 1.62 : 1.27

Total 2.5 Over 13.3% - Under 86.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 45.6% / 24.4% / 30.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,832 / 1,771 Zenit / Spartak Moscow

RD 131 / 118 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.23 market consensus · no value · model 30.0%

X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 45.6%

Double chance

X2 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 54.4%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 70.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.16 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.43 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 13.3%

Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · weak value +64.7% · model 86.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.03 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Dafabet	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SBO
	1.94 51.6%	2.34 42.7%	2.15 46.5%	2.33 42.9%	2.31 43.3%	2.18 45.9%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.44 29.1%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.42 29.2%	2.97 33.7%
	3.70 27.0%	3.30 30.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.18 31.5%	3.20 31.3%	2.81 35.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Marathonbet
no	2.03 49.3%	2.04 49.0%	2.02 49.5%
yes	1.76 56.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Marathonbet	SBO
draw_away	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.64 61.0%
home_away	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.21 82.6%
home_draw	1.38 72.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.24 80.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 2.0	—	1.45 69.0%
Over 2.25	—	1.69 59.2%
Over 2.5	1.96 51.0%	1.99 50.3%
Over 2.75	—	2.15 46.5%
Over 3.0	—	2.57 38.9%
Over 3.25	—	2.86 35.0%
Over 3.5	—	3.16 31.7%
Over 3.75	—	3.78 26.5%
Over 4.0	—	5.15 19.4%
Over 4.25	—	5.40 18.5%
Under 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—

Match center

Zenit

Founded 1925

Spartak Moscow

Founded 1922

Match center

Zenit

W W W L W

18.03 15:15 UTC Cup

Zenit 1:0 Dinamo Makhachkala

03.03 17:00 UTC Cup

Zenit 1:0 Baltika

27.11 17:30 UTC Cup

Zenit 1:0 Dinamo

05.11 17:30 UTC Cup

Zenit 1:3 Dinamo

22.10 17:30 UTC Cup

Zenit 6:0 FC Orenburg

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.6 Conceded

12 Points

Spartak Moscow

W L W W W

18.03 17:45 UTC Cup

Spartak Moscow 1:0 Dinamo

05.03 17:45 UTC Cup

Spartak Moscow 2:5 Dinamo

26.11 17:30 UTC Cup

Spartak Moscow 3:2 Lokomotiv

06.11 16:30 UTC Cup

Spartak Moscow 3:1 Lokomotiv

21.10 15:00 UTC Cup

Spartak Moscow 3:1 Dinamo Makhachkala

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.8 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyZenit - Spartak Moscow

Zenit

0 matches total

Spartak Moscow

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.