AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Omoniya. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
03.09.2026 16:30 UTC
Cyprus: Super Cup
Omoniya go head-to-head with Pafos in football, in Cyprus: Super Cup, on 3 September 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Omoniya the favourite, with a win probability of about 52%. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 39%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 19%.
There is little recent-form or head-to-head data for this fixture, so the main guide is the PropickAI model and the current market line. On the Glicko scale the two are essentially level. The game is part of Cyprus: Super Cup.
Our model is notably more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 13-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: the model's 52% for Omoniya. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Omoniya — 52%
Model estimate: win Omoniya 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Pafos 28.5%. Model favourite — Omoniya.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.
Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.99 50.3% |
| yes | 1.73 57.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.33 75.2% |
| 1x | 1.37 73.0% | 1.43 69.9% |
| x2 | 1.46 68.5% | 1.51 66.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.00 33.3% | |
| X | 2.06 48.5% |
| 3.44 29.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Under 1 | 1.84 54.4% |
Full head-to-head history: Omoniya - Pafos
The Omoniya - Pafos breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Omoniya. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Omoniya vs Pafos from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
September 3, 2026.
