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31.07.2026 22:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 22:00 UTC
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Ecuador. Premier League
Emelec - Aucas
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Emelec — 59%
Model estimate: win Emelec 58.6%, draw 21.0%, win Aucas 20.4%. Model favourite — Emelec.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Emelec (odds2.11)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Emelek: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.11)
- • edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Emelec - Aucas July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Emelec. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.15 / X 3.10 / 2 3.40
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Pick
43.0%
X
29.8%
2
27.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Liga ProLeague table
Emelec
ARRAY
Aucas
ARRAY
Best price
across 11 books
1
2.25
Betano
X
3.20
Unibet
2
3.40
Bet365
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Emelec
W-D-L 3-5-2
Scored 1.00
Conceded 1.11
xG 1.18
xGA 1.14
Corners 5.0
Aucas
W-D-L 5-1-4
Scored 1.00
Conceded 1.40
xG 1.35
xGA 1.06
Corners 4.8
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Emelec
Rating 1515
xG 1.21
Win 40%
Aucas
Rating 1550
xG 1.04
Win 31%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Emelec - Aucas
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Form
Match
Participants
More needed
Market
fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line
fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Emelec
-
58.6%
model pick
Draw
-
21.0%
draw risk
Aucas
-
20.4%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
58.6% / 21.0% / 20.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,638 / 1,412
Emelec / Aukas
RD
168 / 166
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,302-1,973 / 1,079-1,744
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.40
market consensus · no value · model 20.4%
X
3.10
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.15
market consensus · value +26.0% · model 58.6%
Double chance
12
1.32
market consensus · value +4.3% · model 79.0%
1X
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 79.6%
X2
1.62
market consensus · no value · model 41.4%
Handicap
2 0
2.40
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.51
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.33
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.53
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.27 78.7% |
| x2 | 1.62 61.7% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 1.51 66.2% | |
| 2.40 41.7% |
Total
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2.33 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.53 65.4% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% |
| 3.40 29.4% |
Match center
Emelec
L
D
L
W
D
Emelec
0:7
Deportivo Kuenka
Deportivo Kuenka
Emelec
1:1
Mushuk Runa
Mushuk Runa
Emelec
1:6
Independente del Vale
Independente del Vale
Emelec
2:0
Orense
Orense
Emelec
0:0
Barselona Guayakil
Barselona Guayakil
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
0.8
Scored
2.8
Conceded
5
Points
Aucas
L
L
W
L
W
Aucas
1:4
Makara
Makara
Aucas
1:2
Orense
Orense
Aucas
1:0
Tekniko Yu.
Tekniko Yu.
Aucas
0:3
Independente del Vale
Independente del Vale
Aucas
1:0
Deportivo Kuenka
Deportivo Kuenka
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.8
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyEmelec - Aucas
Emelec
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Emelec - Aucas breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form