Ecuador. Premier League
Leones del Norte take on Barcelona SC on August 1, 2026 in the Ecuador. Premier League.
Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Leones del Norte — 52%
Pure model vs market (1 · Leones del Norte): model 43% · market 31% Δ +12 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Leones del Norte 52.1%, draw 21.8%, win Barcelona SC 26.0%. Model favourite — Leones del Norte.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.76 56.8% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.48 67.6% | 1.51 66.2% |
| x2 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.37 73.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.68 27.2% | |
| X | 1.91 52.4% |
| 3.27 30.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.48 67.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.35 42.6% |
Leones del Norte
Delfin
Guayakil Siti
LDU Kito
Deportivo Kuenka
Universidad Katolika Kito
Barcelona SC
LDU Kito
Universidad Katolika Kito
Libertad
Guayakil Siti
Emelek
Full head-to-head historyLeones del Norte - Barcelona SC
The Leones del Norte - Barcelona SC breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
