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Ecuador. Premier League
Ecuador. Premier League
02.08.2026 23:10 UTC
02.08.2026 23:10 UTC
Not started

Ecuador. Premier League

Leones del Norte - Barcelona SC

Football
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
- : -
Not started
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC

Leones del Norte meet Barcelona SC on August 2, 2026 in the Ecuador. Premier League.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Barcelona SC — 37%

Pure model vs market (2 · Barcelona SC): model 31% · market 32% Δ −1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Leones del Norte33.7%
X · draw29.7%
2 · Barcelona SC36.7%

Model estimate: win Leones del Norte 33.7%, draw 29.7%, win Barcelona SC 36.7%. Model favourite — Barcelona SC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leones del Norte (odds2.37) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Leones del Norte: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.37)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones del Norte - Barcelona SC August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Leones del Norte. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / X 3.10 / 2 2.94

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 37.7%
X 30.3%
2 32.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Pro
League table
Leones del Norte
#731 ptsGP 228-7-723:21
Barcelona SC
#534 ptsGP 229-7-623:17
Best price across 14 books
1 2.78 10Bet
X 3.19 Pinnacle
2 3.00 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Leones del Norte
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.30 Conceded 0.89 xG 1.03 xGA 1.26 Corners 4.4
Barcelona SC
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.00 Conceded 0.70 xG 1.38 xGA 1.05 Corners 4.5

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Leones del Norte
Rating 1551 xG 0.97 Win 29%
Barcelona SC
Rating 1570 xG 1.24 Win 42%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 23:10 UTC
Market 1 37.7% @ 2.49 / X 30.3% @ 3.10 / 2 32.0% @ 2.94
Match center

Leones del Norte - Barcelona SC

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones del Norte 33.1% 33.7%
Draw 29.9% 29.7% draw risk
Barcelona SC 37.1% 36.7% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.24

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.7% / 29.7% / 36.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,600 / 1,568 Leones del Norte / Barcelona Guayaquil
RD 300 / 163 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,000-2,199 / 1,241-1,894 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.88 market consensus · no value · model 36.7%
X 3.05 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.46 market consensus · no value · model 33.7%
Double chance
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 70.3%
1X 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 63.3%
X2 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 66.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.56 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.41 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.01 49.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.35 74.1% 1.37 73.0%
x2 1.46 68.5% 1.49 67.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.31 30.2%
X 1.89 52.9%
3.71 27.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.50 66.7%
Under 0.5 2.30 43.5%
Match center
Leones del Norte
D W D W D
30.07 20:00 UTC+0 Ecuador: Cup Ekvadora
Leones del Norte 0:0 LDU KitoLDU Kito
26.07 16:15 UTC+0 Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Leones del Norte 1:0 DelfinDelfin
23.07 19:30 UTC+0 Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Leones del Norte 1:1 Guayakil SitiGuayakil Siti
18.07 19:30 UTC+0 Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Leones del Norte 1:0 LDU KitoLDU Kito
15.07 20:00 UTC+0 Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Leones del Norte 1:1 Deportivo KuenkaDeportivo Kuenka
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
9 Points
Barcelona SC
W L W D D
26.07 22:15 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Barcelona SC 2:0 LDU KitoLDU Kito
21.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Barcelona SC 1:2 Universidad Katolika KitoUniversidad Katolika Kito
18.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Barcelona SC 1:0 LibertadLibertad
15.07 22:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Barcelona SC 1:1 Guayakil SitiGuayakil Siti
12.07 21:10 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Barcelona SC 0:0 EmelekEmelek
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points