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Ecuador. Premier League
Ecuador. Premier League
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Ecuador. Premier League

Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte

Futbol
Libertad Loja
Libertad Loja
1 : 3
Finished
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte July 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Libertad Loja.

Line favourite market consensus: Libertad Loja. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.41 / X 3.02 / 2 2.82
  • 1X2 market: Libertad Loja 37.7% / X 30.1% / Leones del Norte 32.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1%
1 37.7%
X 30.1%
2 32.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Liga Pro

Team stats

Libertad Loja
LLLLWDLDWL
W 2 • D 2 • L 6 (10)
Goals average:1 : 1.7
14 place, 17 pts
Leones del Norte
LLWLWLWLWD
W 4 • D 1 • L 5 (10)
Goals average:1.3 : 1.1
13 place, 17 pts
Head-to-head: 1 — Libertad Loja 0, draws 1, Leones del Norte 0 (goals 1:1)
  • Leones FC — Libertad2026-02-28 1:1

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.83 market consensus · line only
X 6.10 Fonbet · line only
1 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.06 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 5.20 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 2.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.25 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.95 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.33 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.08 32.5% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.00 33.3% 2.75 36.4%
2.95 33.9% 2.90 34.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.87 34.8% 2.80 35.7% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.95 33.9% 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.33 75.2% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.06 94.3%
1x 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.50 66.7% 1.56 64.1% 5.20 19.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.03 33.0%
X 2.03 49.3%
3.59 27.9%