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31.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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Ecuador. Premier League
Manta - Mushuc Runa
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Mushuc Runa — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Mushuc Runa): model 42% · market 39% Δ +3 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Manta 30.9%, draw 29.6%, win Mushuc Runa 39.5%. Model favourite — Mushuc Runa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Mushuc Runa (odds2.36)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Mushuk Runa: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.36)
- • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Manta - Mushuc Runa July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Mushuc Runa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.00 / X 3.17 / 2 2.37
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.1%
1
31.1%
X
29.5%
2
39.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Manta - Mushuc Runa
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Manta
30.8%
30.9%
Draw
29.8%
29.6%
draw risk
Mushuc Runa
39.4%
39.5%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
30.9% / 29.6% / 39.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,244 / 1,484
Manta / Mushuc Runa
RD
153 / 171
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
938-1,550 / 1,141-1,826
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.36
market consensus · no value · model 39.5%
X
3.12
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.97
market consensus · no value · model 30.9%
Double chance
12
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 70.4%
1X
1.52
market consensus · no value · model 60.5%
X2
1.33
market consensus · no value · model 69.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.34
market consensus · line only
2 0
1.66
market consensus · line only
1 +0.5
1.53
market consensus · line only
1 0
2.10
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.22
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.59
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.79
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.92
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.79 55.9% |
| yes | 1.92 52.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
| x2 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.66 27.3% | |
| X | 2.00 50.0% |
| 3.07 32.6% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.44 69.4% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.48 40.3% |
Match center
Manta
L
D
L
L
D
Manta
0:1
Tekniko Yu.
Tekniko Yu.
Manta
1:1
LDU Kito
LDU Kito
Manta
0:1
Guayakil Siti
Guayakil Siti
Manta
0:1
Delfin
Delfin
Manta
0:0
Orense
Orense
0
Wins
2
Draws
3
Losses
0.2
Scored
0.8
Conceded
2
Points
Mushuc Runa
L
D
W
L
W
Mushuc Runa
0:2
Libertad
Libertad
Mushuc Runa
1:1
Emelek
Emelek
Mushuc Runa
2:1
Orense
Orense
Mushuc Runa
1:2
Makara
Makara
Mushuc Runa
3:2
Universidad Katolika Kito
Universidad Katolika Kito
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyManta - Mushuc Runa
Manta
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Manta - Mushuc Runa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form