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Ecuador. Premier League
Ecuador. Premier League
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

Ecuador. Premier League

Manta FC - Mushuc Runa SC

Football
Manta FC
Manta FC
- : -
Not started
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC

Manta FC take on Mushuc Runa SC on August 1, 2026 in the Ecuador. Premier League.

Recent form (W-D-L): Manta FC 0-2-3, Mushuc Runa SC 2-1-2. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Mushuc Runa SC — 40%

Pure model vs market (2 · Mushuc Runa SC): model 42% · market 38% Δ +4 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Manta FC30.9%
X · draw29.6%
2 · Mushuc Runa SC39.5%

Model estimate: win Manta FC 30.9%, draw 29.6%, win Mushuc Runa SC 39.5%. Model favourite — Mushuc Runa SC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Mushuc Runa SC (odds2.36) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Mushuk Runa: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.36)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manta FC - Mushuc Runa SC August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Mushuc Runa SC. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.89 / X 3.13 / 2 2.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 32.5%
X 30.0%
2 37.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Pro
League table
Manta FC
#1614 ptsGP 223-5-148:27
Mushuc Runa SC
#1425 ptsGP 226-7-927:33
Best price across 13 books
1 3.00 Bet365
X 3.25 10Bet
2 2.49 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Manta FC
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.40 Conceded 1.30 xG 0.90 xGA 1.42 Corners 4.8
Mushuc Runa SC
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.20 Conceded 2.00 xG 1.23 xGA 1.31 Corners 5.6

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Manta FC
Rating 1400 xG 0.97 Win 28%
Mushuc Runa SC
Rating 1490 xG 1.30 Win 44%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 32.5% @ 2.89 / X 30.0% @ 3.13 / 2 37.5% @ 2.50
Match center

Manta FC - Mushuc Runa SC

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Manta FC 30.8% 30.9%
Draw 29.8% 29.6% draw risk
Mushuc Runa SC 39.4% 39.5% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.30

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.9% / 29.6% / 39.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,244 / 1,484 Manta / Mushuc Runa
RD 153 / 171 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 938-1,550 / 1,141-1,826 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.47 market consensus · no value · model 39.5%
X 3.04 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.86 market consensus · no value · model 30.9%
Double chance
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 70.4%
1X 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 60.5%
X2 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 69.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.75 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.98 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.36 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.76 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.76 56.8%
yes 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.31 76.3% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0%
x2 1.34 74.6% 1.37 73.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.68 27.2%
X 1.95 51.3%
3.16 31.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.48 67.6%
Under 0.5 2.36 42.4%
Match center
Manta FC
L D L L D
25.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Manta FC 0:1 Tekniko Yu.Tekniko Yu.
22.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Manta FC 1:1 LDU KitoLDU Kito
19.07 19:45 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Manta FC 0:1 Guayakil SitiGuayakil Siti
14.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Manta FC 0:1 DelfinDelfin
11.07 15:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Manta FC 0:0 OrenseOrense
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
2 Points
Mushuc Runa SC
L D W L W
27.07 17:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Mushuc Runa SC 0:2 LibertadLibertad
23.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Mushuc Runa SC 1:1 EmelekEmelek
20.07 17:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Mushuc Runa SC 2:1 OrenseOrense
14.07 19:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Mushuc Runa SC 1:2 MakaraMakara
05.07 19:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Mushuc Runa SC 3:2 Universidad Katolika KitoUniversidad Katolika Kito
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyManta FC - Mushuc Runa SC

Manta FC
0 matches total
Mushuc Runa SC
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history