Ecuador. Premier League
Tecnico Universitario face Mushuc Runa on August 9, 2026 in the Ecuador. Premier League.
Recent form (W-D-L): Tecnico Universitario 1-0-4, Mushuc Runa 2-1-2. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Mushuc Runa — 36%
Pure model vs market (2 · Mushuc Runa): model 39% · market 36% Δ +3 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Tecnico Universitario 34.5%, draw 29.7%, win Mushuc Runa 35.8%. Model favourite — Mushuc Runa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% |
| yes | 1.85 54.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.41 70.9% | 1.44 69.4% |
| x2 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.41 70.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.35 29.9% | |
| X | 1.99 50.3% |
| 3.33 30.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.42 70.4% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.51 39.8% |
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Katolika Kito
Manta
Independente del Vale
Aukas
Libertad
Mushuc Runa
Manta
Libertad
Emelek
Orense
Makara
Full head-to-head historyTecnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa
The Tecnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
