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Ecuador. Premier League
Ecuador. Premier League
31.07.2026 21:30 UTC
31.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Not started

Ecuador. Premier League

Universidad Catolica - Tecnico Universitario

Football
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
- : -
Not started
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Universidad Catolica — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Universidad Catolica): model 51% · market 67% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Universidad Catolica54.6%
X · draw21.3%
2 · Tecnico Universitario24.1%

Model estimate: win Universidad Catolica 54.6%, draw 21.3%, win Tecnico Universitario 24.1%. Model favourite — Universidad Catolica.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Universidad Catolica (odds1.83) Score 2:1 confidence 55%
  • • (football)
  • • Model backs Universidad Katolika Kito: probability 55% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.83)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Universidad Catolica - Tecnico Universitario July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Universidad Catolica. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.40 / X 4.50 / 2 7.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 67.0%
X 20.8%
2 12.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Pro
League table
Universidad Catolica
#236 ptsGP 2210-6-633:19
ARRAY
Tecnico Universitario
#1226 ptsGP 228-2-1220:24
ARRAY
Best price across 12 books
1 1.48 Bet365
X 4.42 Pinnacle
2 7.10 1xBet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Universidad Catolica
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.09 xG 1.47 xGA 1.10 Corners 4.9
Tecnico Universitario
W-D-L 5-0-5 Scored 1.09 Conceded 1.10 xG 1.09 xGA 1.29 Corners 4.4

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Universidad Catolica
Rating 1598 xG 1.78 Win 62%
Tecnico Universitario
Rating 1487 xG 0.76 Win 16%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Market 1 67.0% @ 1.40 / X 20.8% @ 4.50 / 2 12.2% @ 7.70
Match center

Universidad Catolica - Tecnico Universitario

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Universidad Catolica - 54.6% model pick
Draw - 21.3% draw risk
Tecnico Universitario - 24.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.6% / 21.3% / 24.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,608 / 1,390 Universidad Catolica Quito / Tekniko Yu.
RD 146 / 164 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,317-1,899 / 1,061-1,719 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.17 market consensus · no value · model 24.1%
X 4.45 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 54.6%
Double chance
12 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%
1X 1.06 market consensus · no value · model 75.9%
X2 2.70 market consensus · weak value +22.6% · model 45.4%
Handicap
2 +1 2.10 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.66 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.72 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.72 58.1%
yes 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5%
x2 2.65 37.7% 2.75 36.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.89 52.9%
X 2.36 42.4%
6.80 14.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.51 39.8%
Under 1.5 1.43 69.9%
Match center
Universidad Catolica
D W W W L
27.07 19:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica 0:0 Guayakil SitiGuayakil Siti
21.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica 2:1 Barselona GuayakilBarselona Guayakil
18.07 17:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica 2:0 Deportivo KuenkaDeportivo Kuenka
15.07 20:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica 1:0 LDU KitoLDU Kito
10.07 20:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica 0:1 Leones del NorteLeones del Norte
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
Tecnico Universitario
W L L L L
25.07 22:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Tecnico Universitario 1:0 MantaManta
22.07 19:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Tecnico Universitario 0:3 Independente del ValeIndependente del Vale
19.07 14:45 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Tecnico Universitario 0:1 AukasAukas
15.07 15:00 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Tecnico Universitario 0:1 LibertadLibertad
10.07 22:15 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Tecnico Universitario 0:2 MakaraMakara
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
3 Points