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Efiopiya - Premier League
Efiopiya - Premier League Ethiopia
06.05.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
06.05.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Efiopiya - Premier League

Ethiopia

Velvalo Adigrat - Negele Arsi

Ethiopia Football
V
Velvalo Adigrat
1 : 2
Finished
Negele Arsi
Negele Arsi

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Velvalo Adigrat - Negele Arsi May 6, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Negele Arsi. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.21 / X 7.40 / 2 1.08

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 25.3%
1 15.3%
X 10.8%
2 73.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 06.05.2026 15:00 UTC
Match center

Velvalo Adigrat - Negele Arsi

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.08 Fonbet · line only
X 7.40 Fonbet · line only
1 3.50 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betfair Betsson Bwin
1.04 96.2% 151.00 0.7% 151.00 0.7% 501.00 0.2% 3.45 29.0% 176.00 0.6%
X 7.00 14.3% 29.00 3.5% 29.00 3.5% 41.00 2.4% 2.58 38.8% 26.00 3.9%
67.00 1.5% 1.01 99.3% 1.01 99.4% 1.01 99.5% 2.28 43.9% 1.04 96.6%