AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Southampton. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
25.08.2026 14:00 UTC
England. Championship
Southampton go head-to-head with West Ham on August 25, 2026 in the England. Championship.
Recent form (W-D-L): Southampton 4-0-1, West Ham 1-3-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Southampton — 52%
Model estimate: win Southampton 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win West Ham 28.5%. Model favourite — Southampton.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Playoff draw
Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.34 42.7% |
| yes | 1.53 65.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.02 33.1% | |
| X | 2.24 44.6% |
| 3.02 33.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Under 1 | 2.16 46.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.81 55.3% | |
| 1.89 52.9% |
Southampton
Full head-to-head history: Southampton - West Ham
The Southampton - West Ham breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 25, 2026.
Match markets