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AI verdict

AI pick Hull City win probability ~39% confidence Low best odds 3.20

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Hull City. Full breakdown below.

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England. Championship
England. Championship
26.08.2026 18:45 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
26.08.2026 18:45 UTC
Not started

England. Championship

Stoke City - Hull City

Football
Stoke City
Stoke City
- : -
Not started
H
Hull City

Stoke City face Hull City on August 26, 2026 in the England. Championship.

Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Hull City — 39%

1 · Stoke City32.1%
X · draw29.0%
2 · Hull City38.9%

Model estimate: win Stoke City 32.1%, draw 29.0%, win Hull City 38.9%. Model favourite — Hull City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Stoke City - Hull City August 26, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Stoke City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.90 / X 3.40 / 2 3.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9% 5 books · best price +31.8%
1 42.8%
X 27.7%
2 29.5%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

League Cup
Best price across 13 books
1 3.05 Dafabet
X 3.40 BetVictor
2 2.55 1xBet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Stoke City
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.72 Conceded 0.94 xG 1.73 xGA 1.19 Corners 4.1
Hull City
W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 1.70 Conceded 2.19 xG 1.27 xGA 1.22 Corners 5.6

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Stoke City
42%
2.90
Draw
28%
3.40
Hull City
29%
3.20
Handicap
Stoke City (0.5)
54%
1.38
Hull City (0.5)
46%
2.45
Total
Over 9.5
54%
2.12
Under 9.5
46%
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
51%
1.79
No
49%
2.20

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket EFL Cup 26/27

Preliminary Round
Tranmere3
Rochdale4
York0
Crawley2
Round 1
Stockport5
Doncaster6
West Ham3
Portsmouth1
Mansfield0
Sheffield United3
Swansea0
Birmingham1
Barnsley7
Wigan6
Bromley5
Reading6
Rotherham1
West Bromwich4
Wycombe1
Stevenage2
Middlesbrough1
Wrexham0
Leyton Orient2
Oxford United0
Colchester0
Southampton2
Norwich4
Milton Keynes1
Burnley5
Notts4
Wolverhampton3
Port Vale0
Stoke2
Oldham0
Crewe2
Accrington1
Fleetwood1
Chesterfield0
Leicester1
Northampton0
Sheffield Wednesday1
Bolton0
Wimbledon6
Newport5
QPR1
Millwall3
Preston5
Huddersfield4
Grimsby1
Blackpool3
Salford4
Shrewsbury5
Burton1
Blackburn2
Derby1
Lincoln2
Cambridge2
Barnet1
Bristol Rovers0
Peterborough1
Plymouth2
Exeter0
Bristol City0
Walsall1
Cardiff3
Swindon2
Gillingham0
Luton3
Cheltenham1
Charlton3
Bradford2
Rochdale0
Watford1
Crawley0
Round 2
Doncaster0
Middlesbrough0
Southampton0
West Ham0
Blackburn0
Sheffield United0
Birmingham0
Brentford0
Barnsley0
Crewe0
Stevenage0
Reading0
Newcastle0
West Bromwich0
Walsall0
Leyton Orient0
Cardiff0
Norwich0
Bradford0
Burnley0
Sheffield Wednesday0
Wolverhampton0
Stoke0
Hull0
Fleetwood0
Shrewsbury0
Ipswich0
Leicester0
Fulham0
Wimbledon0
Cambridge0
Millwall0
Preston0
Everton0
Blackpool0
Lincoln0
Watford0
Peterborough0
Plymouth0
Coventry0
Chelsea0
Luton0
Tottenham0
Charlton0
Nottingham0
Leeds United0

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Stadium Bet365 (Stok-on-Trent, England)
Start 26.08.2026 18:45 UTC
Market 1 36.2% @ 2.90 / X 30.9% @ 3.40 / 2 32.8% @ 3.20
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Hull City 39%
💹 Market Stoke City 43%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Stoke City - Hull City

football, Stok Siti - Khall Siti, 25 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Stok Siti - Khall Siti, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Cup Angliyskoy futbolnoy ligi 2026/27, 2-y raund.

Market 3 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Stoke City 31.4% 32.1%
Draw 29.4% 29.0% draw risk
Hull City 39.2% 38.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.1% / 29.0% / 38.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Stoke City / Hull
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.04 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
X 3.03 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.47 market consensus · no value · model 32.1%
Double chance
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 71.0%
1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 61.1%
X2 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 67.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.70 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.29 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 2.44 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.62 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.11 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 1.92 52.1%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
1x 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
x2 1.64 61.0% 1.63 61.4% 1.32 75.8% 1.32 75.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.80 35.7%
X 2.20 45.5%
3.86 25.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.87 53.5%
Under 1 1.86 53.8%
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Stoke City - Hull City

Stoke City
0 matches total
Hull City
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Stoke City
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Hull City
Stoke City Team comparison Hull City
1 Games 0
1 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
2 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
3 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
9 Shots on goal 0
3 Shots on target 0
. Prognoz: Ueyn Runi nakazhet bukmekerov za nedootsenku «baranov» «Sevilya» ne unichtozhit «Kartakhenu», «Liverpulyu» pora ne propustit v gostyakh Keyn and «Lester» udarno zavershat sezon Subbotniy ekspress. Smeshalis v kuchu «losi», «tigry», «molotki» Vremya chudes. Novogodniy ekspress na APL s koeffitsientom 14.85 V Londone budut bit «tigrov», «Stok» and «Lester» poraduyut golami «Man Siti» pora oderzhat vtoruyu gostevuyu pobedu podryad «Liverpul» and «MYu» rasstrelyali vsyu oboymu v mid-uik «Arsenal» sposoben uprochit liderstvo na «Enfilde» «Kanoniry» po traditsii vystre

Stok Siti Khall Siti 1 Games 0 1 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 2 Scored 0 Conceded 0 3 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 9 Shots on goal 0 3 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3 Uglovye 0 3 Offsaydy 0 10 Foly 0 64 % vladeniya myachom 0 2 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Mark Robins Glavnye trenery Sergey Yakirovich Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 14% 29% 57% Double chance 22% 35% 43% Materialy po prognozam «Derbi Kaunti» — «Stok». Prognoz: Ueyn Runi nakazhet bukmekerov za nedootsenku «baranov» «Sevilya» ne unichtozhit «Kartakhenu», «Liverpulyu» pora ne propustit v gostyakh Keyn and «Lester» udarno zavershat sezon Subbotniy ekspress. Smeshalis v kuchu «losi», «tigry», «molotki» Vremya chudes. Novogodniy ekspress na APL s koeffitsientom 14.85 V Londone budut bit «tigrov», «Stok» and «Lester» poraduyut golami «Man Siti» pora oderzhat vtoruyu gostevuyu pobedu podryad «Liverpul» and «MYu» rasstrelyali vsyu oboymu v mid-uik «Arsenal» sposoben uprochit liderstvo na «Enfilde» «Kanoniry» po traditsii vystrelyat zalpom po «sorokam» CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_13374

More predictions

Cardiff – Norwich 26.08 Doncaster – Middlesbrough 26.08 Barnsley –Kryu 26.08 Blekbern– Sheffield United 26.08 Blackpool – Lincoln 26.08 Cambridge United –Milluol 26.08

Frequently asked questions

When does Stoke City vs Hull City start?

August 26, 2026.