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Ekstraklasa Poland

04.04.2026 18:15 UTC Match prediction

04.04.2026 18:15 UTC

Finished

Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia - Lech Poznan

Poland Football

Stadium Meyski

Jagiellonia

0 : 0

Finished

Lech Poznan

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lech Poznan — 38%

1 · Jagiellonia35.3%

X · draw26.3%

2 · Lech Poznan38.4%

Model estimate: win Jagiellonia 35.3%, draw 26.3%, win Lech Poznan 38.4%. Model favourite — Lech Poznan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Jagiellonia - Lech Poznan April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Jagiellonia.

Line favourite market consensus: Jagiellonia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.41 / X 3.60 / 2 2.61
1X2 market: Jagiellonia 38.6% / X 25.8% / Lech Poznan 35.6%
Glicko: Jagiellonia 35.3% / X 26.3% / Lech Poznan 38.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 18.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%

1 38.6%

X 25.8%

2 35.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%

Over 2.5 60.7%

Under 2.5 39.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 2/4

Confidence 37.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 04.04.2026 18:15 UTC

Stadium Meyski (Belostok)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lech Poznan 38%

💹 Market Jagiellonia 3859%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Jagiellonia - Lech Poznan

Jagiellonia: Win 2.50 Jagiellonia: Draw 3.60 Lech Poznan Win: 2.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Jagiellonia bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Jagiellonia menshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total go…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 11

Statistics 24

Lineups 28

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Yellow Card Lech Poznan

32' 32' Yellow Card Jagiellonia

43' 43' Yellow Card Jagiellonia

64' 64' Substitution 5 | P. Walemark | assist/sub out: D. Hakans Lech Poznan

64' 64' Substitution 6 | P. Rodriguez | assist/sub out: G. Thordarson Lech Poznan

72' 72' Substitution 6 | K. Szmyt | assist/sub out: Nahuel Leiva Jagiellonia

72' 72' Substitution 7 | Eryk Kozlowski | assist/sub out: T. Romanczuk Jagiellonia

84' 84' Substitution 12 | M. Ishak | assist/sub out: Y. Agnero Lech Poznan

Metric Jagiellonia Lech Poznan SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.04 1.26 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 7 final

Shots off target 5 7 final

Shots on target 3 3 final

Udary vsego 10 17 final

Fouls soversheno 15 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Jagiellonia #7 Pozo, #10 Afimico Pululu, #11 Jesús Imaz, #13 Bernardo Vital, #15 Norbert Wojtuszek, #27 Bartłomiej Wdowik, #50 Sławomir Abramowicz, #86 Bartosz Mazurek

Lech Poznan #2 Joel Pereira, #8 A. Gholizadeh, #9 M. Ishak, #14 L. Bengtsson, #15 M. Gurgul, #16 A. Milić, #41 B. Mrozek, #43 A. Kozubal, #72 M. Skrzypczak, #99 Pablo Rodríguez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan football.player.assists 0

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Seyvy 0

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan football.player.minutes_played 84

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Tochnost pasov % 2

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Klyuchevye pasy 39

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Gholizadeh Lech Poznan Shots on target 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Jagiellonia 39.3% 35.3% market favourite

Draw 26.3% 26.3% draw risk

Lech Poznan 34.4% 38.4% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.28 : 1.34

Total 2.5 Over 18.1% - Under 81.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.3% / 26.3% / 38.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,566 / 1,586 Jagiellonia / Lech Poznan

RD 77 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.61 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.4%

X 3.60 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.41 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.3%

Double chance

X2 1.53 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.7%

12 1.26 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.7%

1X 1.46 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.60 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.93 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 18.1%

Under 2.5 2.39 market consensus · weak value +95.7% · model 81.9%

Both teams to score

No 2.55 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet
	2.36 42.4%	2.47 40.5%	2.45 40.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.30 43.5%	2.47 40.5%
X	3.75 26.7%	3.52 28.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.52 28.4%
	2.62 38.2%	2.56 39.1%	2.50 40.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.56 39.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet	Unibet	William Hill
no	2.55 39.2%	2.53 39.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.49 40.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.60 38.5%
yes	1.48 67.6%	1.46 68.5%	1.50 66.7%	1.45 69.0%	1.46 68.5%	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.49 67.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.49 67.1%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.26 79.4%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%
home_draw	1.48 67.6%	1.46 68.5%	1.50 66.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%	1.46 68.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5	1.17 85.5%	1.13 88.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 2.0	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 2.25	—	1.37 73.0%
Over 2.5	1.55 64.5%	1.56 64.1%
Over 3.5	2.35 42.6%	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Over 5.5	8.00 12.5%	—
Under 1.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.40 41.7%	—
Under 3.5	1.57 63.7%	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.07 93.5%	—

Match center

Jagiellonia

Founded 1927

Lech Poznan

Founded 1922

Match center

Full head-to-head historyJagiellonia - Lech Poznan

Jagiellonia

0 matches total

Lech Poznan

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.