When does SRC Hiroshima vs Maruyasu Okazaki start?

AI verdict

AI pick Maruyasu Okazaki win probability ~57% confidence Medium best odds 1.57

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Maruyasu Okazaki. Full breakdown below.

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Emperor Cup

19.08.2026 09:30 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

19.08.2026 09:30 UTC

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Emperor Cup

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

Football

SRC Hiroshima

- : -

Not started

Maruyasu Okazaki

SRC Hiroshima take on Maruyasu Okazaki on August 19, 2026 in the Emperor Cup.

Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Maruyasu Okazaki — 57%

1 · SRC Hiroshima20.2%

X · draw22.5%

2 · Maruyasu Okazaki57.3%

Model estimate: win SRC Hiroshima 20.2%, draw 22.5%, win Maruyasu Okazaki 57.3%. Model favourite — Maruyasu Okazaki.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki August 19, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Maruyasu Okazaki. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.30 / X 4.10 / 2 1.57

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.0% 5 books · best price +3.3%

1 18.0%

X 22.6%

2 59.4%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Emperor Cup

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

SRC Hiroshima

W-D-L 1-0-6 Scored 0.69 Conceded 3.10 xG 0.49 xGA 3.33

Maruyasu Okazaki

W-D-L 3-0-4 Scored 1.52 Conceded 2.96 xG 1.06 xGA 3.53

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

SRC Hiroshima

18%

5.30

Draw

23%

4.10

Maruyasu Okazaki

59%

1.57

Handicap

SRC Hiroshima (0)

36%

3.30

Maruyasu Okazaki (0)

64%

1.55

Total

Over 2.5

55%

1.73

Under 2.5

45%

2.10

Both teams to score

Yes

53%

1.79

47%

2.00

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

SRC Hiroshima 2 : 3 Maruyasu Okazaki

15.66

X3.98

21.55

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated18.08.2026 05:32 UTC

1 25%

X 25%

2 49% ✓ favourite

Score0:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double Chance X2

Per AI data Form:WWLLW / DDDDL H2H: 0-0 Injuries:none Key:Maruyasu Okazaki defensive resilience and tier advantage

Details

Match Overview
The upcoming match in the Japanese Emperor's Cup features a fascinating matchup between regional representative SRC Hiroshima and Japan Football League (JFL) side Maruyasu Okazaki. The winner of this clash will advance to face top-flight competition, adding immense pressure and motivation to this single-elimination tie.
Current Form
SRC Hiroshima: The hosts have been in decent form at their level, securing 3 wins and suffering 2 defeats in their last 5 outings. They have averaged 1.6 points per game while showing an ability to find the back of the net. Their previous game was a victory against ENEOS.
Maruyasu Okazaki: Playing in a higher national tier (JFL), Maruyasu Okazaki's recent competitive form appears deceptively weaker with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss over their last 5 outings. However, they play against significantly tougher weekly opposition than the home team, and their defensive resilience is notable, conceding only 0.4 goals per game on average.
Head-to-Head (H2H) and Team News
There are no recent head-to-head competitive meetings recorded between these two specific clubs. For team news, both squads have avoided major injuries or suspensions heading into this cup tie, meaning both Takuma Todo (SRC Hiroshima) and Hiroyasu Ibata (Maruyasu Okazaki) have full-strength squads at their disposal.
Match Probabilities and Betting Markets
Our analytical model leans heavily on the structural difference between the tiers. Maruyasu Okazaki's defensive stability makes them tough to break down. We completely agree with the baseline Glicko model and find no objective reason to diverge from its output.
P1 (Home Win): 25%
X (Draw): 25%
P2 (Away Win): 49%
Total Goals: Under 2.5 goals. Maruyasu Okazaki's robust defense limits open play, and cup matches of this nature often start cagey.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No.
Double Chance: X2. Given that a draw has a solid 25% probability, covering the away side to either win in 90 minutes or take it to extra time is highly secure.
Most Likely Exact Score: 0:1
Conclusion
The main bet for this fixture is Maruyasu Okazaki to win or draw (Double Chance X2). Their higher-tier experience and rock-solid defensive metrics will make it very difficult for the hosts to break them down.

AI	1	X	2	Score	Total goals	BTTS	Bet
Google AI	25%	25%	49%	0:1	Under 2.5	No	Double Chance X2

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Match center

Start 19.08.2026 09:30 UTC

Market 1 17.6% @ 5.30 / X 22.8% @ 4.10 / 2 59.6% @ 1.57

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Maruyasu Okazaki 49%

📐 Math model Maruyasu Okazaki 57%

💹 Market Maruyasu Okazaki 59%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

Form 5/0 recent games

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

SRC Hiroshima 18.0% 20.2%

Draw 22.6% 22.5% draw risk

Maruyasu Okazaki 59.4% 57.3% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 20.2% / 22.5% / 57.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,708 / 1,500 SRC Hiroshima / Maruyasu Okazaki

RD 294 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,121-2,296 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 57.3%

X 3.96 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 5.00 market consensus · no value · model 20.2%

Double chance

12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 77.5%

1X 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 42.7%

X2 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 79.8%

Handicap

2 -1 1.88 market consensus · line only

2 0 1.45 market consensus · line only

1 +1 1.84 market consensus · line only

1 0 2.67 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.97 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.68 59.5%	1.68 59.5%	1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.19 84.0%	1.19 84.0%	1.15 87.0%	1.15 87.0%
1x	2.20 45.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.12 47.2%	2.12 47.2%
x2	1.11 90.1%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	5.70 17.5%
X	2.22 45.1%
	2.06 48.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.71 58.5%
Over 1.5	2.32 43.1%
Under 1	2.02 49.5%
Under 1.5	1.54 64.9%

Match center

SRC Hiroshima

W W W W L

15.08, 05:00

Urava Red Daymonds 1:4 Sanfrechche Khirosima

08.08, 05:15

Sanfrechche Khirosima 3:0 DZhEF Yunayted

28.07, 03:00

Sanfrechche Khirosima 4:0 Khoe Oita

14.07, 11:00

Slaven Belupo 1:3 Sanfrechche Khirosima

11.07, 10:00

Shturm Grats 5:1 Sanfrechche Khirosima

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

SRC Hiroshima

0 matches total

Maruyasu Okazaki

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

AI match prediction SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki August 19, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

AI outcome leader: 1

Forecast by market

Score prediction

AI predictions

Buy the full AI analysis

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history

Recent form

Team form & streaks

Match facts

Frequently asked questions

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

AI match prediction SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki August 19, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

AI outcome leader: 1

Forecast by market

Score prediction

AI predictions

Buy the full AI analysis

SRC Hiroshima - Maruyasu Okazaki

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history

Recent form

Team form & streaks

Match facts

More predictions

Frequently asked questions