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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Ajax - Twente

Netherlands Football
Stadium Johan Cruijff Arena
Capacity 54 990
Ajax
Ajax
1 : 2
Finished
Twente
Twente
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Ajax — 39%

1 · Ajax38.9%
X · draw26.2%
2 · Twente35.0%

Model estimate: win Ajax 38.9%, draw 26.2%, win Twente 35.0%. Model favourite — Ajax.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ajax - Twente April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ajax.

Strongest: Ajax - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.26 / X 3.68 / 2 2.80
  • 1X2 market: Ajax 41.3% / X 25.3% / Twente 33.3%
  • Glicko: Ajax 38.9% / X 26.2% / Twente 35.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 81.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.1%
1 41.3%
X 25.4%
2 33.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 60.7%
Under 2.5 39.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 41.2%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)
Capacity 54,990

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Ajax 39%
💹 Market Ajax 4133%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Ajax - Twente

Ajax: Win 2.30 Ajax: Draw 3.75 Twente Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.35 Individualnyy total golov Ajax bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Ajax menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Twente bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Indiv…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 17
min Event Player Team
18' 18' Normal Goal | R. Zerrouki Twente
32' 32' Normal Goal | W. Weghorst Ajax
41' 41' Yellow Card | O. Edvardsen Ajax
55' 55' Yellow Card | A. Gaaei Ajax
57' 57' Substitution 3 | O. Edvardsen | assist/sub out: O. Gloukh Ajax
61' 61' Yellow Card | D. Rots Twente
63' 63' Yellow Card | O. Gloukh Ajax
63' 63' Substitution 1 | D. Rots | assist/sub out: M. Pjaca Twente
Metric Ajax Twente SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.94 1.37 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final
Shots off target 4 5 final
Shots on target 2 7 final
Udary vsego 10 16 final
Fouls soversheno 14 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 2 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Ajax #2 Lucas Rosa, #3 A. Gaaei, #11 M. Godts, #15 Y. Baas, #17 O. Edvardsen, #23 S. Berghuis, #24 J. Mokio, #25 W. Weghorst, #37 Josip Šutalo
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Gaaei Ajax football.player.assists 0
A. Gaaei Ajax Dribling popytki 3
A. Gaaei Ajax Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Gaaei Ajax Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Gaaei Ajax Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Gaaei Ajax Fouls na igroke 1
A. Gaaei Ajax Seyvy 0
A. Gaaei Ajax football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Gaaei Ajax Klyuchevye pasy 38
A. Gaaei Ajax Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ajax 42.0% 38.9% market and model agree
Draw 24.7% 26.2% draw risk
Twente 33.4% 35.0%
xG - 1.36 : 1.28
Total 2.5 Over 81.3% - Under 18.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 38.9% / 26.2% / 35.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,629 / 1,605 Ajax / Twente
RD 77 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.80 market consensus · no value · model 35.0%
X 3.68 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.26 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
Double chance
X2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 61.1%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 73.9%
1X 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 65.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.82 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.57 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · value +26.0% · model 81.3%
Under 2.5 2.39 market consensus · no value · model 18.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.53 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.28 43.9% 2.28 43.9% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.95 25.3% 3.72 26.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0%
2.74 36.5% 2.79 35.8% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.75 36.4% 2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.52 39.7% 2.53 39.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.63 38.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.49 40.2%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.46 68.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.03 97.1% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.5 1.53 65.4% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 3.5 2.30 43.5% — —
Over 4.5 4.00 25.0% — —
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 11.00 9.1% — —
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.45 40.8% — —
Under 3.0 — 1.91 52.4% —
Under 3.5 1.60 62.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
Ajax
Founded 1900
Twente
Founded 1965
Match center
Ajax
OZ O. Zinchenko Knee Injury
TT T. Tomiyasu Injury
Twente
MH M. Hilgers Knee Injury
DR D. Rots Injury
Ajax Founded: 1900
Twente Founded: 1965
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAjax - Twente

Ajax
0 matches total
Twente
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.